The Middle East has entered a new phase of escalation following the stalling of negotiations between Israel and Hamas, with Israel announcing the commencement of military operations in specific areas of Rafah, preceding a large-scale invasion of the city. This latest escalation coincides with a serious intensification on the Lebanese front, raising genuine fears of the war in Rafah spreading to other regions.
In this context, Haneen Ghadar, a researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, stated in an article published on the institute's website that "the disagreement between the United States and Israel on how to handle the invasion of Rafah may encourage Hezbollah to accelerate its rising operations." The Lebanese researcher noted that "since his first speech regarding this Israeli attack last November, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah linked the Gaza war to the confrontation the party is waging with Israel in southern Lebanon. The recent activities of the Lebanese party affirm this connection. While the Israeli army is taking its initial actions in Rafah, Hezbollah announces the use of new weapons in attacks across the northern border, calls for further troop mobilization, and gives other signals of an imminent escalation." She added that "whether these moves are genuine or symbolic, there is a significant risk that the Lebanese group will try to exploit the invasion of Rafah to deepen tensions between Israel, Washington, and the international community." Ghadar emphasized that "the Israeli government has found itself caught in a challenging balancing act, which could increase the risk of miscalculation and total war unless strict diplomacy is employed to address the situation."
### Escalation Since April
After the invasion of Rafah, Lebanese sources reported that Hezbollah announced a general mobilization to prepare for the upcoming actions that Israel might take if it decides to expand the war to southern Lebanon. In this regard, the Lebanese researcher stated, "Activating Hezbollah's reserves might just be a rhetorical mobilization – instead of actually deploying all its reserves to the frontline, Hezbollah might simply continue its strategy of statements and calculated actions in response to changing developments while avoiding complete mobilization and total war, at least for now. However, regardless of the group's intentions, the changes on the ground in recent days indicate an increasing risk of war, whether the parties want it or not."
According to the researcher, these developments follow the direct exchange of gunfire that occurred last month between Iran and Israel, highlighting the significance and sensitivity of Hezbollah's role as Iran's primary regional proxy. The missile and drone attack that took place on April 13 against Israel revealed the inadequacy of Iranian military capabilities—if Tehran hoped to breach the defenses of its allies in a potentially larger operation or future war, it would likely need Hezbollah to join its substantial arsenal. This understanding also means that Hezbollah's weapons remain a crucial defensive shield and an insurance policy for Iran, which the regime dislikes spending on behalf of Gaza or Hamas.
### The Invasion of Rafah
The researcher added that "the commencement of the Israeli forces' invasion of Rafah is significant for Hezbollah for two main reasons. First, the international reactions to the operation were extremely harsh due to the potential humanitarian consequences, leading Hezbollah to conclude that Israel might now be more isolated and vulnerable. Even the Biden administration publicly criticized the operation and halted shipments of certain munitions to Israel—which is a decision that Hezbollah, Iran, and other actors are likely to view as a shift in U.S.-Israeli relations, although most arms transfers, if not all, have since resumed. Second, despite Israel's continued low-level military activity in Gaza for the next few months, the invasion of Rafah could signify the end of its main combat operations there. This means the Israeli army may soon be able to refocus more resources and attention on the Lebanese front, with the intention of returning northern residents to their homes. Multiple indicators and statements suggest an Israeli escalation against Hezbollah following Rafah."
### American Policy Options
The Lebanese researcher addressed the strong U.S. support for Israel, stating that in the initial months of the Gaza war, the Biden administration's robust support for Israel, strict messages directed at Iran and Hezbollah, and the heavy deployment of warships and fighter jets in the region constituted a strong deterrent. Hezbollah recognized the risks associated with challenging this stance. Today, strong American deterrence remains crucial not only to prevent a broader war but also to facilitate effective negotiations for a ceasefire along the Israeli-Lebanese border. She added, "The Biden administration must continue to push for a ceasefire agreement while clearly stating that it will support Israel in the event of war with Hezbollah."