Climate experts say that the goal of keeping long-term global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius is becoming increasingly elusive, as countries fail to set more ambitious targets despite record-high temperatures on land and sea for months. As envoys gather in Bonn in early June to prepare for this year's annual climate talks in November, the average surface air temperatures have exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for days, according to the European Union-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Although average temperatures have previously spiked briefly above the 1.5-degree mark, this is the first time this threshold has been crossed in the Northern Hemisphere during the summer that began on June 1, with sea temperatures also surpassing levels recorded in April and May. Sarah Perkins Kirkpatrick, a climate scientist at the University of New South Wales in Australia, stated, "We no longer have more time as change takes time."
As envoys from China and the United States, the largest greenhouse gas emitters, prepare to meet next month, temperatures have surpassed June record highs in Beijing, while severe heatwaves have hit the United States. Temperatures in parts of North America were about 10 degrees Celsius above average this month, while smoke plumes from wildfires covered the skies in Canada and the U.S. East Coast, emitting around 160 million metric tons of carbon dioxide.
India, one of the regions most affected by climate change, has recorded an increase in deaths due to continued rising temperatures, while Spain, Iran, and Vietnam have also reported extreme temperatures, raising concerns that last summer's increase in fatalities may become a regular occurrence.
Countries agreed in Paris in 2015 to try to keep the long-term average temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius, yet the World Meteorological Organization predicted in May a 66 percent chance that the annual average will exceed the 1.5-degree threshold for at least a full year from now until 2027.
The global average sea surface temperature was 21 degrees Celsius in late March, maintaining record levels throughout April and May. Pierce Forster, a climate physics professor at the University of Leeds, noted, "Global warming is the main driver, but also included factors like the El Niño phenomenon, reduced Saharan dust blowing over the ocean, and the use of low-sulfur fuel for ships." He added, "So overall, the oceans are facing a quadruple whammy. This is an indicator of things to come."
Annalisa Bracco, a climate scientist at the Georgia Institute of Technology, stated that "rising sea temperatures may also mean a reduction in wind patterns and rainfall, creating a feedback loop that leads to more heat." She pointed out that "although this year's elevated sea temperatures are the result of a perfect blend of conditions, the environmental impact may persist. The oceans' response will be very slow as they will accumulate heat gradually, but they will also retain it for a very long time."
Climate experts indicate that the scope and frequency of extreme weather are on the rise; this year has also seen droughts around the world, as well as a rare cyclone that claimed hundreds of lives in Africa.
