Climate

The "El Niño" Phenomenon Approaches: Is the Climate Becoming Extreme?

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The BBC has shed light on the phenomenon of climate extremity, reviewing changes occurring in various parts of the world. Starting in Texas and parts of the southwestern United States, a severe heatwave is affecting over 120 million Americans who are receiving some form of guidance regarding temperature, according to the National Weather Service. This represents more than one in three of the total population. In the United Kingdom, temperatures in June broke all records, exceeding the previous record set in 1940 by 0.9 degrees Celsius, which is a significant difference. There is also an unprecedented wave of hot weather in North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. It was not surprising for the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to state that globally, June was the hottest month ever recorded.

According to the BBC report, "temperatures have not decreased. The three hottest days ever recorded occurred last week, according to the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service, with the global average temperature reaching 16.89 degrees Celsius on Monday, July 3, and exceeding 17 degrees Celsius for the first time on July 4, with a global average of 17.04 degrees Celsius. Preliminary figures indicate that the average was surpassed on July 5 when temperatures reached 17.05 degrees Celsius." The site explains that "these increases align with what climate models have predicted, as Professor Richard Betts, a climate scientist at the Met Office and the University of Exeter, states: we should not be surprised at all by the rise in global temperatures. This is all a stark reminder of what we have known for some time, and we will see more extremity until we stop pumping more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. When we think about how hot the weather is, we tend to consider air temperature, as this is what we feel in our daily lives. However, most of the heat stored near the Earth's surface is not in the atmosphere but in the oceans. We have seen some record ocean temperatures during the spring and summer of this year. For example, the North Atlantic is currently experiencing the highest surface water temperatures ever recorded. This marine heatwave has been particularly notable around the coasts of the UK, where some areas have seen temperatures reach 5 degrees Celsius above what is typical for this time of year."

The report continues: "The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the U.S. described the heatwave as reaching 'Category 4.' This designation, which indicates 'extreme' heat, is rarely used outside tropical regions. Daniela Schmidt, a professor of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol, states that these extreme temperatures in this part of the North Atlantic have never been heard of before. Meanwhile, 'El Niño' is developing in the tropical Pacific. El Niño is a recurring weather pattern that occurs when warm water rises to the surface off the coast of South America and spreads across the ocean. With both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans experiencing heatwaves, it is not surprising that sea surface temperatures in April, May, and June are the highest ever recorded, according to the Met Office's data dating back to 1850. If the seas are warmer than usual, one can expect air temperatures to rise as well, according to Tim Lenton, a professor of climate change at the University of Exeter. He explains that most of the excess heat trapped due to greenhouse gas accumulation has led to warmer sea surface temperatures. This excess heat tends to move downwards to the deeper parts of the ocean waters, but movements in ocean currents—such as El Niño—can bring it back to the surface. Professor Lenton says that when this happens, a lot of this heat is released into the atmosphere, leading to an increase in air temperatures."

The conclusion is that "it's easy to expect that this very hot weather is 'exceptional,' but the frustrating truth is that climate change means it is normal for the world to now experience record temperatures. Emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise year after year. Although the rate of increase has slowed slightly, CO2 emissions related to energy have still been high, about 1 percent last year, according to the International Energy Agency, which monitors global energy. The higher global temperatures rise, the greater the risk of heatwaves, notes Frederick Otto, a climate scientist at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. Experts are already predicting that the developing El Niño will make 2023 the hottest year on record and fear that this development may temporarily push the world beyond the hoped-for warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius. This is just the beginning. Unless we implement substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, temperatures will continue to rise."

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