Issues remain stuck in a vicious cycle, without any breakthrough in the status quo from Gaza to southern Lebanon. Although the holiday season may have brought political relaxation during Passover and Eid, this will not be positive after the holidays, as there are expectations that the crisis will prolong, especially regarding the presidential election line. A veteran politician mentioned, quoting a friend in contact with U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein, that the latter often states, "If I return to Tel Aviv and Beirut, it means there are positives, but things are not that way."
There is nothing indicating a political thaw, especially since local parties maintain their positions, evidenced by the fact that the "Bkirki paper" has not achieved its intended purpose amidst disagreements among Maronite leaders and party heads. Furthermore, other parties are also entangled in the specifics, while the country is facing dire economic developments regarding Eurobonds, and the international community will not provide any support to Lebanon unless a president is elected, a government is formed, and reforms are initiated.
The same political reference reiterates that Iranian-American negotiations continue quietly and timidly, but will not be fruitful as long as there are American presidential elections ahead, and there is no aligned vision between the current and former candidates, President Joe Biden and Donald Trump. This indicates that negotiations will not achieve their goals until a new U.S. president is elected. Hence, Lebanon remains in a state of waiting and anticipation regarding these paths to determine its internal situation.
As for whether the war in the south will escalate into a comprehensive war or remain within certain limits, especially if Israeli strikes exceed conflict boundaries, such as those that occurred in Baalbek and Hermel extending to Damascus, Aleppo, and other Syrian cities, the situation remains open to all possibilities.
Simultaneously, informed political sources tell "An-Nahar" that communications have not ceased despite the murky atmosphere. There is French-American coordination to prevent an all-out war, actions being taken by French President Emmanuel Macron. However, up to now, he has been unable to stop or control it due to challenging international and regional conditions. Some believe that Paris has become a party itself by aligning with the U.S. position in the Ukraine war and what is occurring in Gaza.
The sources add that there are indications of communication between the Americans, French, and Gulf capitals, primarily Riyadh, to vigorously advance the presidential file out of fear of a comprehensive war. There should be a president to face upcoming changes and settlements. In the upcoming few days, the outlines of the new movement and mechanism are expected to emerge, while some confirm that French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian's mission has concluded, albeit according to those who contact him, it is still ongoing. However, he will not return and record another failure until communications between the pillars of the "Quintet" mature at the regional level, according to "An-Nahar."
