The presidential vacuum crisis, which is set to enter its tenth month in a few days, has not passed without a stagnation that reinforces the current state of political deadlock. Amid increasing negative indicators regarding the ambiguity surrounding French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian’s mission to Lebanon, the deafening silence from French diplomatic circles regarding everything raised and still being raised in Lebanon following the distribution of Le Drian's messages to lawmakers stands out. The wide parliamentary division regarding whether to respond to these messages reflects the alarming depth of the intense political rivalries surrounding the presidential crisis and its internal ramifications.
Thus, it is no longer a secret that the hopes pinned on Le Drian achieving any success in his anticipated third visit to Beirut have reached their lowest levels. There is nothing to dispel the bleak expectations regarding this matter, even in light of rumors about possible accompaniment of envoys from the Quint group to Le Drian's mission and discussions of a Qatari envoy's visit to Beirut. The data related to the overall positions of the foreign parties involved in the Lebanese crisis do not encourage expectations of substantial positive changes in the atmospheres surrounding the crisis.
Additionally, the coming days will witness very cautious anticipation of the results of the frantic efforts undertaken by the Lebanese delegation to New York, headed by Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib, in attempts that seem very difficult to modify some of the core content in the decision to extend UNIFIL’s mandate in southern Lebanon, which is expected to maintain the independence of UNIFIL's operations from the army, a stance rejected by Lebanon. While Bou Habib has raised the banner of rejecting the extension under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, it has become clear that the diplomatic battle Lebanon is fighting is on the brink of a critical phase where success in convincing countries to reconsider the issue of UNIFIL's independence—which was included in last year’s extension—is difficult to anticipate. Moreover, the United States has reiterated its strict stance on this matter by imposing sanctions on the organization "Green Without Borders,” which it accuses of being an extension of Hezbollah and having a military character disguised by environmental activities.
Amid the scrutiny of this tough standoff surrounding the extension of UNIFIL, it was noted that in the context of events commemorating the sixth anniversary of the liberation of the eastern mountain range, Hezbollah held a military exhibition in Baalbek showcasing tanks and military vehicles within the party's ground forces, along with a number of missiles. The exhibition was inaugurated with political, party, and public attendance.
On the internal political front, no significant developments were recorded, except for a reiteration of firm positions regarding the crisis. In this context, MP Adeeb Abd al-Masih stated, "There are no signs of electing a president next September, and we are in a stage of stagnation." He emphasized, "We are keen to ensure results that benefit the Lebanese before any dialogue, and there is no problem in electing any president through the democratic process." He considered that "French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian made a mistake in delivering the message to the Parliament, and the opposition's statement is 'clear and sufficient' to respond to it."
For his part, MP Cesar Abi Khalil stressed "the importance of dialogue among political factions to reach agreements," affirming "the Free Patriotic Movement's support for consecutive open sessions until a President of the Republic is elected." Regarding the message to which the French envoy awaits answers before the end of this month, he pointed out that "the movement had previously taken the initiative in one of Le Drian's visits and handed him a paper of presidential priorities and its vision on the file." He emphasized that the movement aspires to the widest possible agreement with all other political forces in the country's interest, revealing a "meeting with the Democratic Socialist Party next week," and confirmed that "the name Jihad Azour is still on the table as long as the opposing team does not resort to searching for a third name and insists on its candidate Sleiman Frangieh,” excluding the possibility of the Army Commander being elected "as this matter requires a constitutional amendment."
In contrast, member of the "Loyalty to the Resistance" bloc MP Ali Fayyad expressed hope that "exploring marine fields would be a window of hope for a financial and economic recovery that saves Lebanon from its current situation," considering that "this is not enough, as it is politically necessary to quickly accomplish the presidential entitlement, and financially the adoption of a plan for restoring financial order and related legislations is required, which would put the crisis on the road to resolution." He said, "We are preparing for September, which we hope will bring an opportunity for dialogue as a way to agree on accomplishing the presidential entitlement, as without dialogue leading to an agreement, any group will find it difficult to secure the two-thirds quorum. It is worth noting that our team has higher chances in terms of cohesion and the ability to expand in gaining votes to secure a winning quorum of 65 votes."
