The lack of a summit between President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman represents a point that needs clarification. While awaiting the arrival of French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, the new French ambassador is visiting the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, as part of his introductory meetings. The scene is changing before the French envoy's arrival; President Macron, despite not meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince, is determined to achieve a breakthrough in the Lebanese situation to solidify influence after setbacks faced in Africa. Sources close to the Elysee indicated that the French-Saudi task force, which includes mediator Le Drian, French presidential advisor Patrick Durel, Saudi royal court advisor Nizar Al-Aloula, and Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari, discussed how to provide Saudi support for the French agenda after organizing dialogue that Le Drian will invite following bilateral sessions with representatives of the blocs, change-oriented deputies, and independents.
Thus, Lebanon is still waiting for what the Arab and French envoys will bring in terms of proposals or new initiatives to resolve the presidential vacuum, despite some negative or unclear atmospheres surrounding the proposals for dialogue and consensus, in contrast to the overwhelming mood that desires dialogue and understanding. Meanwhile, Speaker Nabih Berri denied to "Al-Liwaa" reports that his initiative for dialogue had been frozen for seven days, during which open sessions for the election of a president would take place. President Berri stated: "I have not frozen my initiative; on the contrary, it is ongoing and complements the French initiative. The two initiatives support each other, and their essence is the dialogue and consensus for the election of the president." He added: "I am awaiting the visit of French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, and I expect my initiative to be integrated with Le Drian's initiative to achieve the desired positive result through dialogue and consensus."
At the same time, a Qatari exploratory movement is underway towards Iran to facilitate the process, with expectations of a French-American meeting in Riyadh and another in the Vatican on the 20th of this month, alongside a series of meetings on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly among several officials concerned with the Lebanese file, without excluding the possibility of the quintet committee meeting again. Based on this activity, sources indicated that a committee might be formed including Le Drian and American and Saudi officials to propose a solution within a comprehensive package, unless any changes occur in the current equation.
According to circulating information, Qatar, which tends to endorse Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, is considering inviting several Lebanese figures to Qatar to discuss capitalizing on the available opportunity to elect a president. Observers noted that it is difficult to characterize or explain what is happening with the current presidential movement before the results of the French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian's visit to Beirut and his meetings with various parties are clearer. These observers clarified that there are no clear indicators regarding what the French official might propose after holding meetings that included the presidential file, stating that, in any case, the file is witnessing movements even if the required breakthrough does not occur.
However, Le Drian will work on discussing the concerns of the parties and will derive conclusions before intensifying his efforts and engaging in a process of back-and-forth discussions, especially since he seeks answers regarding some ideas he has proposed. In this context, information has leaked regarding increased chances for General Aoun, in case the dialogue called for by President Berri does not take place or if there is a deadlock around administrative decentralization and the financial trust fund between the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah. Sources within the Shiite duo revealed that there is extraordinary external activity to expedite the election of a president, but no data or developments exist to assert that a president will be elected in September, for instance. The matter is more complex than that, and we must wait for Berri's dialogue and the possibility of consensus around it and the completion of successive sessions without the withdrawal of the concerned parties, indicating a clear suggestion that the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah have not reached agreements allowing the movement to guarantee the quorum for completing the open sessions for electing a president.
Regarding the meeting between the head of the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc, MP Muhammad Raad, and General Aoun, informed and leadership sources within the duo framed the meeting within the context of regular communication between the party and the commander without denying discussions between the two about the presidential file. However, does this meeting, along with the leaked information, pave the way for the commander to reach Baabda without the party conceding its support for Franjieh? The sources replied literally: "Hezbollah is still clinging to the Franjieh option, and as long as it is not exploring other presidential options, the visit cannot be given greater significance, nor can it be placed outside the framework of communication and security and political coordination between the party and the army leadership."
