Arab and international mediators have begun reviewing the efforts to bridge the divides among the Lebanese, analyzing the outcomes and any flaws, mistakes, or interventions that aimed to undermine or obstruct the process. Given the volatile situation in Lebanon, their focus has been on how to effectively convey messages. Sources indicate that the special envoy of French President Emmanuel Macron, Jean-Yves Le Drian, who directly criticized the Frangieh-Salame formula while assessing the situation in Lebanon, has since adopted the theory suggesting either an agreement on a third candidate or proceeding to parliamentary elections.
Additionally, the Qatari envoy Jassim bin Fahd Al Thani, who continues to conduct behind-the-scenes communications under a direct mandate from Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, is preparing a report for the Emir in light of unexpected changes in positions that were not anticipated at the onset of his mission. Recently, the Qatari envoy met with Deputy Bassil and is scheduled to meet with Geagea as part of a second round of discussions with various parties. He has also engaged with Ali Hassan Khalil, the political assistant to President Berri, and Hussein Khalil, the political assistant to Hezbollah's Secretary-General.
On the other hand, "Al-Jumhuriya" pointed out that the Qatari initiative, shrouded in complete silence regarding the movements and meetings of envoy Jassim bin Fahd Al Thani, indirectly signals that this effort remains entangled in complexity. According to sources familiar with the atmosphere surrounding these activities and meetings, the Qatari envoy's mission was fundamentally aimed at convincing the involved parties regarding the presidential file to make concessions for the benefit of Lebanon. However, from its inception, this initiative seems to have encountered a "collision of choices." The mission is designed to build upon what the French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian has laid out, proposing a new presidential option from a list excluding the names of Sleiman Frangieh and former minister Jihad Azour. Yet, it appears to have clashed with pre-determined presidential options by the internal parties, which has stalled the Qatari initiative outside the realm of constructive engagement, raising the likelihood of its failure.
According to credible sources for "Al-Jumhuriya," despite assertions of coordination with the Americans, and that it is not opposed by the Saudis or displeasing to the French, the Qatari initiative does not seem to possess the necessary momentum to create the needed breakthrough in the presidential stalemate. This mirrors the French initiative and the efforts of the Quintet committee, both of which failed to draw the Lebanese towards a presidential solution, resulting in the ineffectiveness of the French initiative and the retreat of the Quintet.
Evaluations conclude that Lebanon serves as fertile ground for testing international and regional conflicts, influenced by the events surrounding critical issues in Yemen and Syria. Furthermore, Arab and French sources have confirmed to "An-Nahar" that Le Drian's talks in Saudi Arabia with Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and Nizar Al-Aloula, advisor at the royal court responsible for the Lebanese file, alongside Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari, yielded Saudi support for Le Drian's approach in attempting to resolve the presidential vacuum in Lebanon despite the enormous challenges.
There is significant pessimism within high Saudi circles regarding Lebanon's crisis due to the actions of Lebanese officials. However, Saudi Arabia is fully coordinating with Qatar and is prepared to support Le Drian's efforts and send messages to its allies in Lebanon to encourage them to elect a president, especially since Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pledged to President Emmanuel Macron that he would assist France in Lebanon. Furthermore, information from Arab and French sources indicated that there is no opposition to the election of General Joseph Aoun if he receives unanimous approval, with the French envoy and the Saudi side agreeing that General Aoun is a suitable character for the presidency if backed by Lebanese factions. The two sides confirmed their unified stance among the five nations regarding Lebanon, possibly prompting joint action with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to push for the elections.
French sources have confirmed that Doha has expressed its support for Paris's initiative without presenting any parallel initiatives, and that Saudi-Qatari coordination is complete. French analysis suggests that if the current situation persists, Lebanon will experience further deterioration. The country is not collapsing but eroding, presenting a significant danger, especially as France and President Emmanuel Macron remain the only ones still invested in the Lebanese file.
Amidst this chaos, informed sources revealed that American maritime mediator Amos Hochstein is scheduled to visit the region, including Lebanon, before the end of this month to explore the possibility of initiating discussions on the disputed land borders, particularly concerning point 13.
