The final word remains in the field with the absence of international mediation to stop the Israeli blockade imposed on the Gaza Strip, in light of Tel Aviv's military units being prepared for an invasion. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian informed Lebanese leaders he met that the Hamas leadership assured Tehran that its fighters are capable of continuing military confrontations for several months. Abdollahian revealed, as reported by Lebanese sources following his meetings in Beirut, that the Iranian leadership was not previously informed about the timing of Hamas’s military campaign in invading settlements around Gaza. He stated that Tehran has contacted Hamas leadership, which informed them of its continued confrontation with Israel, which persists in committing massacres against Palestinians in Gaza while imposing all forms of blockade.
The accompanying sources confirmed that Abdollahian, with the information he possessed, is confident that Hamas has prepared an unprecedented surprise for the Israeli army if it insists on invading Gaza to restore the military institution's prestige, which has suffered from the impact of Hamas's invasion of the settlements. He did not rule out the expansion of the war in Gaza if Israel continued to amass forces for an invasion, warning of multiple scenarios that may broaden the confrontation beyond the Gaza Strip, indicating that the conflict could extend to other areas in the region.
The report noted that while Abdollahian warns Israel against invading Gaza, his mere presence in Beirut signifies that Tehran will not relinquish the arena to its adversaries and will be present to face all possibilities, intending to convey a message that it is a partner in seeking solutions to curtail Israel's ongoing massacres against Gaza. It observed that the stability of the situation in Southern Lebanon remains contingent on the developments arising from military operations in Gaza. It indicated that Hezbollah is prepared to engage in confrontation if Israel insists on its invasion of Gaza, stating that the party is monitoring the situation to formulate its position based on the unfolding developments in the confrontation, as emphasized by Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem, who declared their full readiness and clarity in their plan and vision for any forthcoming action.
The same sources believe that Hezbollah is gearing up for all possible scenarios based on its accurate assessment of the developments in the field, currently limited to exchanging fire messages with Israel in Southern Lebanon amidst rising tensions that have exceeded the rules of engagement without leading to their complete collapse. They asserted that Abdollahian did not arrive in Beirut bearing an operational order to activate the northern front based on understanding with Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah to determine the zero hour to begin confrontation with Israel. His visit coincided with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's presence in Israel, underscoring that Tehran will not vacate the arena and is involved in negotiations to halt the war on Gaza.
They added that the outbreak of confrontation along the northern front is not likely at this time; otherwise, Abdollahian would not have been urgently required to travel to Beirut to avoid the perception that the party decided to engage at Iran's request. His visit carries a primary mission aimed at confirming that Tehran seeks de-escalation and is prepared to play a role in stopping the Israeli war on Gaza.
In this context, the sources questioned why Washington took the initiative to absolve Iran from the ongoing campaigns against Hamas until now. They cited that the U.S. administration was informed that Tehran was not previously aware of the timing of Hamas's military campaign, a fact conveyed to them by Oman, which sponsors indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Although caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati communicates with Hezbollah leadership through the political aide to its Secretary-General, Hussein Khalil, and consistently meets with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, he has not received assurances regarding the inactivity of the northern front. While Hezbollah continues to act realistically concerning tensions in Southern Lebanon without dismantling the rules of engagement, it also distances itself from providing guarantees to the Lebanese government regarding the control over exchanges of fire with Israel, as it evaluates its final position based on the military situation on the Gaza front.
Hezbollah’s leadership is faced with a range of options to accompany the open war in Gaza and its surroundings without abandoning the option of intervening if necessary, despite its efforts to occupy Israel to alleviate military pressure on Hamas, forcing it to mobilize significant units of its army in anticipation of moving the northern front should it spiral out of control.
