The Americans continue to use all their European and Arab channels to prevent the expansion of the front toward southern Lebanon. Following limited operations on the border, the Americans reiterated their messages to the Lebanese government and the Lebanese army, and through them to "Hezbollah," that Washington will stand by Israel but is not a party to the war. They stated that they would not prevent Israel from carrying out any severe strikes against Lebanon, including Beirut, should Hezbollah decide to invade Israeli settlements in the north, along with direct requests from the army and government to prevent any movement of Palestinian elements on the border. According to American media, citing officials in President Joe Biden's administration and allies, these warnings were issued despite senior American officials' belief that "Hezbollah" would not join the war of "Hamas" against Israel, "despite some escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli border." CNN reported that the message was conveyed to "Hezbollah" through several channels, including Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Speaker of the House Nabih Berri. US officials mentioned Berri in a congressional briefing on Sunday as a mediator, according to a person familiar with the briefing. The United States will not officially deal with "Hezbollah," which is classified as a terrorist organization, thus making Berri a natural channel.
It was also reported by an unnamed source that "France has also informed Hezbollah, at Israel's request, that it must stay away from the war and refrain from further escalation, or else Israel would respond significantly," adding that "these discussions were also coordinated with the United States." A Western diplomat confirmed that "Western allies who have informal relations with Hezbollah conveyed some messages," adding that Hezbollah's response indicates "a pre-existing willingness not to escalate at this time." A senior defense official expressed concern, stating, "We are very worried about Hezbollah making the wrong decision and choosing to open a second front in this conflict," adding, "We are working with Israel and our partners throughout the region to contain this matter in Gaza."
In addition to the messages, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the deployment of the aircraft carrier "USS Gerald Ford" in the Eastern Mediterranean, "largely as a message to Hezbollah and its Iranian supporters to refrain from entering the war." US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated, "Let me be clear, we did not reposition the carrier for Hamas, but we moved the aircraft carrier to send a clear deterrent message to other countries or non-state actors that may seek to expand this war."
Hezbollah: No Reception of Threatening Messages
For its part, "Hezbollah" decided not to receive any messages or envoys carrying threats, informing those concerned that intimidation is ineffective both with them and with the resistance in Palestine. The only welcomed mediators are those who carry requests within the framework of a project to stop the Israeli aggression, and it is not permissible to ask the resistance—or demand from it—any action related to the activities of Palestinian fighters across the Lebanese border. Alongside the operation carried out yesterday "to convey to Israel that there will be no change to the rules of engagement," the resistance in Lebanon continued its mobilization and coordination with other resistance forces. Coordinated communications are ongoing between Hezbollah, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad to examine options that help resistance in Palestine maintain its standing and thwart the enemy's plan.
Sources informed al-Akhbar that the resistance forces outside of Palestine should undertake all "smart operations" that disrupt the occupation army and prevent it from mobilizing all its capabilities against the sector, signaling to the enemy that Gaza is not left to its fate, in addition to considering steps in the event that the US army directly intervenes alongside the enemy. The sources pointed to "many signs appearing in the last 48 hours indicating that the enemy's military and security leadership is no less confused than its political leadership," despite the intimidation campaign in the global media, with many details emerging moment by moment about the chaos affecting the internal front in Israel.
Widespread War Is Unlikely
On another note, security sources told al-Jumhuriya, "For now, it can be said that the rules of engagement governing the southern front remain stable and have not deviated from the expected action and reaction. Evidence lies in the operations occurring on this front, and the exchanges accompanying them take place within a defined and limited framework on both sides of the border, followed by a state of calm, as we have witnessed in recent days, indicating stability in the rules of engagement without any changes. However, this does not preclude the possibility of further escalation depending on field developments and upon occurrences that the UNIFIL spokesperson described as 'misunderstandings' that could escalate the southern front."
The sources noted that while "Hezbollah" endorsed Hamas's operations and interacted with it by asserting the Palestinian people's right to resist the enemy, it remains firm that it was not involved in the recent operations. Thus, the sources excluded the possibility of the party considering opening a wide combat front against Israel, which echoes the stance from Israel, where realities since the Hamas operation have confirmed its priority in targeting Gaza, thus avoiding complicating its situation by opening a new front in the north. This was also reflected in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's warning to what he called "other parties" against seizing the opportunity to open a new front on the northern border. This was mirrored in the consecutive warnings issued by Washington through President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken against opening additional fronts. In this context, direct American and European messages were conveyed to the Lebanese side affirming efforts to maintain calm along the southern front.
According to reliable information for al-Jumhuriya in this context, the Lebanese side responded to these messages by confirming its commitment to the provisions of Resolution 1701, stating that the source of danger in the southern region does not come from Lebanon, but from Israel, which Speaker of the House Nabih Berri communicated directly to the US ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, during her visit to Ain el-Tineh the day before yesterday.
A military expert told al-Jumhuriya: "The military operations, as they are currently taking place—targeting some sites and military points within occupied Lebanese territories, followed by artillery and missile exchanges within the so-called open areas on both sides of the southern borders—do not reach Lebanese forces and settlements or Israeli settlements. This undoubtedly confirms that neither Israel nor Hezbollah is interested in igniting this front and entering a large-scale war. Accordingly, the expansion of the current war to include the Lebanese front is an unlikely scenario."
However, the greatest threat, according to the military expert, lies in Gaza, where the political, security, military levels in Israel have decided to turn it into a scorched earth and completely destroy it, paving the way for a ground invasion of the sector. What some Israeli leaders have publicly suggested regarding the Palestinian refugees in Gaza moving to the Sinai Peninsula clearly reveals a premeditated Israeli plan, seemingly backed by the largest international coalition led by the United States, to impose a new Palestinian reality and possibly a change to the region's map. This project undoubtedly serves as a spark for widespread ignition, within this context viewing with deep concern the agreement between Netanyahu and the Israeli opposition to form an expanded war government.
Lebanon Cannot Afford to Enter a Current War
In an analytical context regarding the field developments and the resilience and new equation imposed by Hamas in its war with Israel, former MP Chamel Roukoz pointed out that "Operation Flood of Al-Aqsa has been extraordinarily successful in its secrecy, necessity, size, and surprises, as until now no one knows what happened in Gaza. It is a process of restoring dignity for Palestinians wherever they may be, inside or outside of Palestine, especially since the battles began from within against the settlements established on Palestinian occupied land."
Roukoz considered in a statement to the electronic news platform "An-Nabaa" that "what occurred on October 7, 2023, will be studied in the future in academic institutions, as it represents pride for the entire Arab nation," noting that "the most important thing is how to capitalize on this victory so that it does not go to waste, and not to turn into conflict among the Palestinians themselves, while ensuring it is also leveraged on the Arab level for the benefit of the Arab nation, without squandering the achievements achieved."
He affirmed the "necessity of freeing all prisoners and detainees in Israeli prisons," insisting that the Arab peace initiative launched in the Beirut Summit of 2002 that called for a two-state solution should be the mandatory passage for any ceasefire initiative, expecting that this issue will be addressed in negotiations that the Arab League council may undertake, especially since such a turning point as this victory should positively reflect on all developments related to the Palestinian cause, given that the results of Oslo were disgraceful, as he put it.
Thus, amidst all the tension the region is experiencing, Lebanon cannot afford to enter a current war situation, given the absence of a state pillar and the pervasive collapse of institutions, burdens that may be catastrophic on both health and social levels.
