International efforts to warn Lebanon against sliding into war continue. Concurrently, there is internal pressure to safeguard the military institution from the danger of a leadership vacuum. The current military reality in the "new rules of engagement" along the southern border is inflicting heavy human and material costs on border villages daily. This prompted Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri to condemn "Israel's scorched earth policy" on the southern border, similar to what is happening in Gaza.
In this context, diplomatic sources told "Nidaa al-Watan" that there is a "danger" threatening Lebanon "if it remains a mere spectator" regarding the repercussions of the war in Gaza on the south. They noted that the region is currently living under the following stances: a U.S. position wishing to keep the war confined to Gaza; an unclear Iranian stance regarding asking Hezbollah to open the southern front to avoid isolating Hamas in Gaza; and an ambiguous Israeli position regarding Lebanon and the possibility of Israel initiating a southern front against the party.
The sources concluded by stating: "The only solution that represents a precious opportunity is for Lebanon to inform the American, Iranian, and Israeli parties that the Lebanese borders have become under the control of legitimacy, thereby preparing a Lebanese decision to implement UN Resolution 1701, rather than ending up as a battleground, leaving no room for any Lebanese decision whatsoever."
Concurrently, domestic interest appears to be rising to address the conditions of the military institution, which will be responsible for implementing Resolution 1701 alongside UNIFIL forces. Information from "Nidaa al-Watan" indicated that the confirmation from President Berri and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati in their meeting yesterday that "the issue of the military institution should be approached calmly and deliberately to achieve the desired results" did not come without reason; they are working to find a legal solution that allows Army Commander Joseph Aoun to remain in his position after January 10, the date he reaches the legal retirement age.
In a working meeting held by Mikati on Tuesday evening, the first attempt was formulated, which angered Defense Minister Maurice Slim after receiving an urgent correspondence from the Prime Minister titled "Raising Proposals to Avoid the Anticipated Vacancy in the Army Command." The minister described it as framed in an unusual manner.
However, this attempt still faces the risk of failure, especially if the head of the "Maronite Movement" Sleiman Franjieh aligns with the choice of "Free Patriotic Movement" leader Gebran Bassil to refuse the extension. Meanwhile, the proposal to raise the legal age through legislation faces objections from the Christian forces boycotting legislative sessions.
So far, there is no clear legal solution. Some recall the incident of the attempt to extend the tenure of General Abbas Ibrahim, which did not materialize, leading to his retirement, suggesting that the calculations for extending the Army Commander’s term may not be guaranteed.
In contrast, informed sources indicated that circumstances, both internal and external, and intersections necessitating the extension are emerging, pointing out that the option to extend the Army Commander’s term is gaining precedence. These dynamics will become clearer in the coming period. These sources revealed the risks of a vacancy in the Army Command following the vacancy in the Chief of Staff position, adding that relying solely on hierarchy will lead to the disintegration of the institution with each brigade commander returning to their political reference.
