While awaiting the address of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah tomorrow and the positions he will present regarding the southern front, Western sources have highlighted the implications of the Gaza war and its consequences for Lebanon. The importance of these insights lies in the resemblance between the current situation in the Palestinian territory and what occurred in Jordan in September 1970. Fifty-three years ago, the bloody confrontations, referred to as "Black September," between the Jordanian state and Palestinian factions culminated in the relocation of these factions to Lebanon after the battles ended. This transfer marked a historically hazardous event for Lebanon, which suffered for decades from fighting, destruction, and displacement due to bearing the burdens of the Palestinian cause on its own. Will Lebanon experience a similar situation following the Gaza war?
In response to this question, a well-informed source revealed to "Violet Call" that there have been "direct messages and reviews received by political and security officials from Western ambassadors and security personnel concerning the rampant expansion of Islamic Palestinian factions, primarily Hamas in Lebanon." They act in the field, politically, and in the media as if they are the state, posing risks to the Lebanese state itself, which may face measures that increase constraints on its institutions and economy.
The source pointed out that "Westerners are asking why Lebanon does not act like other Arab countries, where there are strict controls over the movements of any external entities? While Lebanon complains about the pressure of Syrian refugees and their burden, it is observed opening its doors to the Palestinian factions to operate freely without oversight, which is prohibited for these factions in any other country in the world."
The source warned that more serious messages and reviews indicate a clear warning that Lebanon, which permits the operations of armed and political Islamic Palestinian activity, will be a natural destination for the leaders and "cadres" of these factions (Hamas and Jihad) if a settlement is reached regarding the war in Gaza. There is talk of the possibility of deporting hundreds, with their refuge being the Palestinian camps in Lebanon, which means heightened tensions in these camps, especially since the largest one, Ain al-Hilweh camp, has witnessed fierce battles for control by Islamists supported by Hamas against the historically influential Fatah movement within it.
Furthermore, the source added that Lebanese authorities should be vigilant about the potential actions Lebanon may face after the Gaza war, especially as the relocation of key "cadres" from Hamas to Lebanon has been monitored, and they have begun appearing on television screens and making statements outside the official political framework of the Lebanese state, which Lebanon may not be able to bear.
From the Hamas and Jihad issue to the Hezbollah file, "Violet Call" learned that the outlines of Nasrallah's speech tomorrow will initially address "the commemoration of the party's martyrs who fell last month, numbering up to fifty by yesterday." He will then discuss the "Al-Aqsa Flood" operation carried out by Hamas on the seventh of last month, considering it "a turning point in the history of Israel," describing it as "a great victory that has restored the Palestinian cause to the forefront." After "strong condemnation of Israel's brutality in targeting civilians and committing massacres and genocide in Gaza," Nasrallah will warn against "the strategic dimensions of the war that go beyond destroying Hamas to destroying Gaza and displacing its people to Egypt, establishing a new geopolitical reality."
While condemning "American and European military interventions and the arrival of fleets and warships," he will emphasize that "Hezbollah is part of the war, at its core and within it, determining how to engage and define its steps." He will announce that "the party does not seek war for war's sake and is not pursuing it, but is ready if it is imposed upon it." He will warn Israel of "the consequences of any folly it commits and any crossing of red lines, assuring it will witness things it has never seen in its life and will forget the events of October 7." He concludes by stating: "There is no declaration of war, but rather preparedness for it, noting that Hamas will emerge victorious, and the countdown to the demise of Israel has begun, proving that it is indeed weaker than a spider's web."
