Amid the ongoing cautious calm in the southern regions, as the extended ceasefire in Gaza continues despite daily Israeli violations, attention has turned to the intensive meetings held by presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian during his fourth visit to Beirut. He met with several leaders in search of exits to the presidential crisis, which has entered its second year, with no indicators emerging yet that lead to a solution for the vacancy in the presidency, thus facilitating the election of a new president for Lebanon.
Le Drian is expected to engage in a new round of meetings with political leaders today to formulate a shared understanding to overcome the presidential impasse. The French envoy will hold significant diplomatic meetings, specifically with ambassadors from the Quintet group that strongly supports his efforts to facilitate the election of a president for Lebanon, based on the specifications previously outlined by the group in its meetings held in Riyadh.
In this context, Gulf diplomatic circles emphasize to "the Tribune" that "the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, alongside the Gulf Cooperation Council states, is concerned with the presidential file in Lebanon, given the importance of completing the presidential entitlement as quickly as possible. For this reason, the Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Walid Bukhari, is in constant movement towards political leaders, conducting ongoing rounds with officials to urge them to expedite the election of a new president in the near future, considering the dangerous ramifications of the vacancy." Thus, what is happening in the region must constitute a considerable pressure factor on the officials since no president will be elected for Lebanon without consensus among the parties on this matter, and there is Arab and international support for the Lebanese to hasten the election of a president before the end of the year.
Political sources do not show optimism regarding the possibility of success for the French envoy’s endeavors for various reasons, the most important being that he does not carry with him a roadmap to resolve the presidential impasse, but merely wishes and advice wrapped in warnings to hasten the election of a new president. They point out that the ball has always been and remains in the court of the Lebanese alone, not in that of any other party. What raises concern, in their view, is the lack of a change in the positions of internal forces that could facilitate Le Drian’s mission. This requires internal efforts to agree on a formula that ends the deadly presidential vacancy that has crippled institutions and is nearly destroying everything in the country. There does not seem to be readiness on the part of political components to make concessions, as each party insists on its conditions, which might lead Le Drian’s mission to a dead end.
It is known that the French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian told those he met yesterday, "In light of the Gaza war, Lebanon cannot remain without a president, especially if the Gaza file goes to negotiations. Lebanon cannot remain outside the equation and outside the negotiation table, as it is concerned with the file." Moreover, information has revealed that Le Drian does not have a presidential proposal but is urging Lebanese officials to expedite agreement on a president, particularly in light of the Gaza war. He explicitly stated to them, "You no longer have time, and if Lebanon remains without a president, the country will head into a very difficult situation that should not leave the presidential issue a point of contention between you."
Political sources confirm that it is no longer hidden from anyone that the head of the "Free Patriotic Movement," MP Gibran Bassil, has long been trying by all means to obstruct the extension of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, to prevent him from reaching the presidency as he is leading the race for the Baabda Palace. The question arises: how does Bassil and his team analyze military appointments in light of the absence of a president, while this team has prevented the appointment of a new governor for the Central Bank amid the presidential vacancy? This, in their opinion, indicates that Bassil is leading a narrow personal battle against the army commander to exclude him from the presidential scene, despite wide demands from Bkerke and significant parties for the extension of General Aoun. However, they believe that in the final moments, the extension will take place, with the agreement of the "duo" for the benefit of the country and the military institution, whether in the Cabinet or through Parliament.
While the atmosphere of cautious calm continues in the south, there are still significant fears of explosive situations in the border areas, despite the existing fragile ceasefire. This could lead to an outbreak in the field at any moment, as both "Hezbollah" and Israel are prepared for confrontation, although the former will not initiate bringing Lebanon into the ongoing conflict, as it knows the consequences unless the occupying army conducts a wide-scale aggression against Lebanon. However, it seems from the current data that the existing status quo will remain as it is, awaiting developments in the Gaza Strip and what will follow the continuous ceasefires, which will have repercussions on the Lebanese front, whether in war or peace.
There has been clear UN concern regarding the situation in the south, expressed by the UN Special Coordinator Joanna Fronczak, after her visit to Deputy Speaker of the Parliament Elias Bou Saab, where she relayed, according to a statement from Bou Saab's office, "The Security Council's concern that the war does not extend along the Blue Line and the importance of the role of UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army in the south, and that there is no intention to change Resolution 1701."
