Lebanon

Gaza War Freezes Presidential File and "Party" Against "Third Option"

Gaza War Freezes Presidential File and

Political circles believe that the visit of French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian to Beirut serves partly to rehabilitate France's image through Lebanon after losing its bases and influence in several countries. Le Drian met with Lebanese officials without presenting any practical plan for electing a president; the discussion was limited to the third option without waiting for any external developments. Consequently, the French envoy merely called for hastening the end of the presidential vacancy.

In this context, prominent political circles told Al-Diyar that the situations in Gaza have significantly frozen the presidential file, closing all doors that would facilitate the election of a president. In summary, what is happening in Gaza has deepened the alignment between the opposition and the resistance. Prior to the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, most Lebanese forces were betting on a regional settlement positively impacting Lebanon, such as the appointment of a president to Baabda Palace. However, today, with Hezbollah entering the battle, the scene has become more complicated, especially concerning Hezbollah, the Marada Movement, and the Free Patriotic Movement's changing interactions with France due to France's bias towards "Israel" in the Gaza assault. Thus, these political circles believe that Hezbollah will not respond flexibly to any French proposal and will not accept the election of a president distant from the resistance, especially as Western pressures to isolate the resistance axis, of which Hezbollah is a core element, are becoming clearer.

Based on these biased European and American atmospheres toward "Israel," Hezbollah will remain steadfast in its support for its candidate, Sleiman Frangieh, and will accept nothing less than Frangieh as president. On the other hand, a prominent official from the Lebanese Forces indicated to Al-Diyar that during the meeting with former French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, they explained that the opposition could bring Jihad Azour to the presidency if democratic rules were followed, namely going to open electoral sessions, but this has not occurred. This official added that the Forces told Le Drian that the resistance team is determined to stick with candidate Sleiman Frangieh, thus ruling out the option of a third candidate.

Furthermore, it was revealed by high-level diplomatic sources to Al-Diyar that there is a new Western tendency to establish a demilitarized zone in South Litani, with UNIFIL forces alone responsible for this area, as well as their deployment along the Blue Line and the exclusion of Hezbollah from these borders. This international movement, led by the United States regarding this dangerous and suspicious project against the resistance, was promoted by envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian through meetings with Lebanese officials. This proposal, however, was not discussed directly by Le Drian with Hezbollah, but he indicated to Lebanese officials that there is a problem in implementing Resolution 1701 that goes beyond controlling the rules governing the southern front, a matter that predates October 7, before the Al-Aqsa Flood operation. He noted that Resolution 1701 continues to be violated, mentioning that the Security Council amended Resolution 1701 in 2022, granting UNIFIL forces the freedom to operate in the south without any coordination with the Lebanese government or army, in addition to monitoring Hezbollah members.

Internally, there has been coordination between the army and the resistance to keep matters as they are, despite the amendments. These diplomatic sources indicated that the goal of this is to reassure settlers who fled from northern occupied Palestine due to clashes on the border, who condition their return to their homes on the absence of Hezbollah from the southern Lebanese borders. In other words, Washington, Paris, and other countries seek to relieve "Israel" on all fronts and weaken any entity or resistance, whether Lebanese, Yemeni, or Iraqi, constituting a threat to the Zionist entity, while simultaneously absolving Israel of all the brutal crimes it committed against Palestinians and Lebanese.

However, this project aimed at a significant modification of Resolution 1701 to distance the resistance infringes upon Lebanese decision-making and the Lebanese people's freedom to determine the fate of their regions and who has the right to exist there. Yet, any project placing Lebanon at the mercy of "Israel" will not benefit the Lebanese people, who are more aware of Israeli oppression and realize that the Zionist entity disregards international law and acts solely in its interests.

From this perspective, political circles told Al-Diyar that the mechanism for implementing the project for a demilitarized area south of Litani is effectively nonexistent because the Lebanese army cannot implement it, nor will Hezbollah accept it; thus, it will remain ink on paper.

### Why is the West Rejecting the Vacancy in the Lebanese Army Leadership?

In this context, ministerial sources explained to Al-Diyar that Washington and Paris view establishing a weapons-free zone south of Litani as requiring stability in the Lebanese army, meaning no vacancy in the leadership position. If the Security Council issued a resolution to deploy UNIFIL forces solely in South Litani without Hezbollah's presence, there must be a commander of the army to facilitate that. The ministerial sources continued that the West is not concerned with the identity or person of the army commander; they merely want to prevent a vacuum to execute their aim. Thus, an extension is the easiest solution currently, as appointing a new army commander requires electing a president and having an effective government, not a caretaker government.

Based on this, French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian declared his position clearly and directly to Lebanese officials, stating that it is essential to postpone the retirement of the army commander, linking this issue to European and American national security. However, within the Lebanese context, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement expressed clear opposition to Le Drian regarding the extension of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, denouncing any foreign intervention in Lebanese affairs. Additionally, other parties oppose the extension of the army leadership for various reasons.

### Army Commander General Joseph Aoun: A Safety Valve for the Nation

Regardless of European or American ambitions to influence the Lebanese army leadership to achieve their goal of establishing a demilitarized zone south of Litani, security sources stated that General Joseph Aoun is not influenced by any external powers and does not implement any project detrimental to Lebanon's interests. They added that the current army commander is a safety valve for the Lebanese people and the homeland and that the Lebanese army has coordinated with Hezbollah in the south to maintain Lebanon's sovereignty, despite the international decision issued in 2022 that granted additional authorities to UNIFIL forces. This confirms that the Lebanese army, under General Joseph Aoun's leadership, and the resistance work together to defend Lebanon.

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