A study published yesterday, Wednesday, shows that fertility rates in almost all countries will be so low that they cannot maintain population levels by the end of the century, and that most live births around the world will occur in the poorest countries. Researcher Stein Emil Vollset from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle stated that this trend will lead to a division in the world between a "baby boom" and a "baby bust," with the boom concentrated in low-income countries that are more vulnerable to economic and political instability.
The study, published in The Lancet, predicts that 155 out of 204 countries and regions worldwide, or 76%, will have fertility rates below the population replacement level by 2050. By 2100, this is expected to rise to 198 countries, accounting for 97%, according to the researchers' estimates. The predictions are based on surveys, censuses, and other data sources collected from 1950 to 2021 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.
Researchers stated that over three-quarters of live births will occur in low- and middle-income countries by the end of the century, with more than half in sub-Saharan Africa. Data shows that the global fertility rate, which is the average number of births per woman, has decreased from about 5 children in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021. By 2021, 110 countries and regions, or 54%, had rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
The study highlights a particularly concerning trend for countries like South Korea and Serbia, where the fertility rate is less than 1.1 children per woman, exposing them to challenges related to a shrinking workforce.
