Olexiy Telynko had hoped that this would be the year Ukraine would drive Russian forces from its occupied territory, but as 2023 nears its end, Kherson, his hometown, continues to be shelled, and the front lines have barely moved. Telynko, who fled Kherson last year and now lives in Kyiv where he assists the displaced, believes Russia is racing against time to rebuild its much larger armed forces to intensify its war efforts. He added, "The hope is that the West can somehow mobilize and strengthen its defense sector to renew equipment and produce what is necessary to defend our ordinary citizens."
After more than 21 months of the largest conflict in Europe since World War II, fighting rages on with no end in sight and without either side delivering a significant blow on the battlefield. Ukrainian soldiers, living in freezing trenches, admitted they are exhausted as the second winter of the total war against a resource-rich nuclear superpower, which has three times Ukraine’s population, approaches. Ukrainians recognize that they must ensure the continuation of Western military aid, and that securing this will be more difficult as global attention shifts to the war between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas).
Russian forces, which occupy about 17.5% of Ukraine's territory, are launching a new offensive in the east after largely repelling a Ukrainian counteroffensive that failed to breach the extensive defensive lines in the south and east. There is a stark contrast between the grim outlook and the positive morale in Kyiv a year ago, after Ukrainians defied expectations by repelling Russian forces around Kyiv and reclaiming territory in the northeast and south, including the city of Kherson.
### What Does It Matter?
Casualties continue to rise in a war that has already resulted in hundreds of thousands killed and injured, destroying cities, towns, and villages in Ukraine and forcing millions to flee their homes, while hundreds of thousands more remain under occupation. Drone and missile strikes have become part of daily life. In the city of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine, underground schools are being built to allow children to study in classrooms without facing the risk of death from air strikes.
Telynko heads a group called Crimea SOS, which helps five million displaced Ukrainians. He says he does not plan to return to Kherson due to the ongoing threat of artillery shelling and targeted airstrikes. He feels that Western military assistance needs to come more quickly and in larger quantities. He notes that there has been a significant shortfall in air power, critical for the counteroffensive, this year, and that F-16 fighter jets have not been delivered.
The flow of vital military and financial aid from the West is no longer smooth. U.S. President Joe Biden has made Ukraine's victory a key goal of his foreign policy as part of his campaign for re-election in November 2024, but the fate of Biden's proposed $60 billion aid package is uncertain due to opposition from some Republicans. Similarly, a separate proposal for €20 billion ($21.75 billion) in military aid from the European Union over four years has faced resistance from some members of the bloc. The lack of significant Ukrainian advances on the battlefield this year could also politically harm Biden in an election that could bring back former President Donald Trump, who urged Congress this summer to withhold aid to Ukraine.
### The Outlook for 2024
Some Ukrainians, including Telynko, believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin will exploit any lull in current fighting to bolster defense capabilities and prepare the Russian army for new attacks. Putin may feel he can escalate Russian war efforts even more after securing a new six-year presidential term in the upcoming elections. Ukraine was also supposed to hold presidential elections last March, but this did not occur due to martial law. Last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky put an end to speculation saying, "This is not the right time" for elections.
The repercussions of the war are likely to negatively affect Ukrainian society and the political landscape in the coming years. The ongoing reforms to increase the effectiveness of recruitment and mobilizing military personnel reveal sensitive and significant issues the government must address. Telynko states that the exhaustion caused by the war has become a reality of life. He adds, "Everyone is tired. The soldiers are tired, the victims are tired, the displaced are tired, but there is no escape. We just cannot give in and say, 'Okay, that’s alright.' So many people have died. We hope the situation improves, and we will see how things go."
