Weeks before Hamas launched its sudden attack on Israel on October 7, the movement's leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, sent a personal message to Israeli officials warning of a potential escalation related to the issue of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. Israeli Channel 12 reported that Sinwar's message indicated that "an escalation in the prisons and regarding the prisoners is expected." It was noted that the message reached Israel and that Sinwar was aware it had been received, without specifying who received it or how it was conveyed.
The channel added that the message did not contain a clear warning regarding the October 7 operation but "may have indirectly shed light on it." According to the channel, those who received the message dismissed the possibility that it referred to unrest among Palestinian inmates held by Israel, believing it related to Israeli prisoners or missing persons in previous incidents. Hamas had taken two Israelis captive in the Gaza Strip in 2014 and 2015, in addition to the bodies of two soldiers killed in 2014.
In March 2023, an Iran-backed Iraqi militia captured an Israeli-Russian researcher named Elizabeth Tsurkov in Baghdad, and she is still being held there. Sinwar’s message was considered "extremely sensitive" and was circulated only minimally within Israeli political and security circles, with the television report stating it was given "the highest security classification possible," allowing access to only a few officials.
Channel 12's report disclosed that the message was discussed within the Mossad and the Israeli army, and that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant were briefed on these discussions and may have participated in some of them, concluding that Sinwar was referring to Israeli prisoners and missing persons.
The report indicated that Israel "did not interpret the message as a warning before the attack," even though Israeli intelligence had materials regarding plans for a potential Hamas attack. Instead, Israel understood from the message that Hamas intended to take responsibility for matters concerning the kidnapped researcher Tsurkov and demanded the release of a large number of Palestinian security prisoners in exchange for her freedom.
