The American intelligence website "Stratfor" has published its annual predictions, highlighting key geopolitical trends expected to impact the world. A comprehensive report for 2024 will be fully published on January 3, 2024, according to Al Jazeera. Among the key predictions are:
**World Awaits Close U.S. Presidential Elections**
The world is holding its breath for the closely contested U.S. presidential elections in November 2024. The current U.S. government will try to bolster its standing among voters through policies such as tightening measures at the southern U.S. border. Meanwhile, other countries are beginning to prepare for a potential return of former President Donald Trump, which could bring back trade wars and raise doubts about NATO.
**Israel's Control Over Gaza**
Stratfor predicts that Israel will reinvade the Gaza Strip and continue facing Palestinian fighters, regional instability, and diplomatic resistance, along with political uncertainty domestically. Israel will struggle to find a viable civil partner to govern Gaza, while the Palestinian Authority will demand a resumption of two-state solution negotiations—something the current Israeli right-wing government lacks the mandate to pursue. Instead, Israel will continue a renewed military occupation of the territory, leading to responsibilities for reconstruction and civil administration. Regarding remaining Hamas fighters, the site anticipates continued attacks on Israeli forces throughout the year in Gaza, while violence in the West Bank may escalate as Hamas shifts operations there, and also to Lebanon and Syria. Israel will also face harassment led by Hamas along its northern border with Lebanon and Syria, although both Hezbollah and Iran will likely try to restrain Hamas to avoid a major regional war. Events may force Israel to consider expanding military operations in both Lebanon and Syria to regain deterrence, and Israel's actions in Gaza will have political repercussions, likely freezing Saudi-Israeli normalization, and prompting increased U.S. criticism of the Israeli government coalition, which may eventually collapse.
**Economic Slowdown in China**
China's economy is expected to slow in 2024, but not to the point of causing a financial crisis, meaning the impact on emerging markets will be manageable. Confronting unusually uncertain economic outlooks, China will continue seeking to rebalance its macroeconomic structure. Authorities are likely to rely on a mix of monetary and fiscal expansion while putting more emphasis on consumer support rather than investment. The slowdown in China's growth will affect emerging and developing economies, but not significantly, according to Stratfor.
**Ukrainian War**
Western material and financial support for the war efforts in Ukraine is expected to decline due to economic and political constraints, with a clear stalemate anticipated along the front throughout 2024. However, a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv or substantial negotiations seem unlikely. Neither side is expected to gain significant ground on the battlefield in 2024 due to resource and manpower limitations amidst increasing trench warfare along the frontline, preventing them from mobilizing sufficient forces for a major breakthrough. Nonetheless, Moscow will continue attempts to surround Ukrainian strongholds along the front to portray U.S. President Joe Biden's support for Ukraine as failing, potentially jeopardizing his chances for re-election in 2024. Meanwhile, Ukraine will strive for tactical gains to convince the West of its sufficient support, with arms supplies allowing it to maintain control over more territory.
**Taiwan Elections**
Taiwan's elections in January are likely to provoke retaliation from China, fueling its rivalry with the United States and accelerating regional supply chain diversification and defense spending.
**Political Stalemate in Europe**
The largest European countries will experience political turmoil throughout 2024, with recurring disputes within the bloc, especially in Germany and Italy, and challenges in the coexistence of government and parliament in France. In Germany, the already divided coalition government will face increasing difficulties in passing legislation due to growing internal divisions.
**Increased U.S. Restrictions**
The United States will expand technological restrictions on China, benefiting countries like India, Malaysia, Vietnam, and other Southeast Asian nations seeking to attract investment, while imposing more controls on the export of equipment used to manufacture advanced semiconductors and on high-performance chips for training artificial intelligence models.
**South African Elections**
In South Africa, political uncertainty before the general elections will exacerbate the risk of unrest and limit the prospects for reform. A decline in support for the African National Congress could lead to a loss of its parliamentary majority, delaying much-needed reforms.
**Indian Elections**
In India, the government will focus on economic development and welfare policies to secure re-election in the upcoming general elections in April and May. However, the risk of communal violence is expected to increase before and after the vote. Stratfor anticipates that the Bharatiya Janata Party led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi will win the general elections, as the party's popularity remains high. In the lead-up to the vote, the electoral discourse surrounding religious, ethnic, and sectarian issues is likely to intensify, with Hindu nationalist rhetoric from the Bharatiya Janata Party exacerbating religious divisions, increasing the likelihood of violence across Indian states.
