Washington and Paris have hurriedly mobilized to address the repercussions of the escalating conflict on the Lebanese front following the assassination of Hamas' second-in-command, Saleh al-Arouri, last Tuesday in the southern suburbs of Beirut. This movement coincided with indications that Lebanon might slide into war amid calls for revenge for the killing of al-Arouri and six other Hamas leaders and members. The latest such calls accompanied al-Arouri’s funeral in Beirut. This follows threats launched by Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah two days ago against Israel in the wake of al-Arouri's assassination. Nasrallah pledged to make further statements today to mark the one-week anniversary of the death of the executive assistant to the Secretary-General, former MP Mohammad Yaghi.
In this context, the U.S. State Department designated Lebanon as a key focus for Secretary Antony Blinken's regional tour, which began yesterday in Tel Aviv. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller stated that Blinken would discuss ways to prevent the conflict from escalating following al-Arouri's killing in an Israeli strike in Lebanon. Before departing Washington, Blinken spoke by phone with French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, agreeing to avoid escalation in Lebanon and Iran.
Meanwhile, in Beirut, French Ambassador Hervé Magro met with several political and security figures. According to "Nidaa Al-Watan," he inquired about the contents of Nasrallah’s speech that caused confusion regarding Lebanon's compliance with UN Resolution 1701, warning of the risk of Lebanon sliding into war, as noted by political sources who met with the French ambassador. The sources stated that France is seeking to implement Resolution 1701 and questioned Hezbollah's adherence to its obligations. They also asked whether Hezbollah would respond to al-Arouri's assassination. He told his hosts that Israel did not intend to target Hezbollah or the southern suburbs but aimed to hit those involved in the October 7 operation near Gaza. Magro expressed concerns about the potential widening of the war, which Nasrallah's escalated threats suggested. He emphasized that restraint and refraining from retaliating against the assassination are crucial factors in preventing escalation and avoiding war.
In a diplomatic context, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants Abdullah Bou Habib will meet tomorrow with the European Union's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, who arrives in Lebanon today. Bou Habib recently returned from Washington, where he met at the White House with Brett McGurk, the U.S. President's Middle East advisor, as well as with U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein. A senior Biden Administration official told reporters during the Hochstein-Bou Habib meeting that the U.S. is making "diplomatic efforts to help resolve some tensions between Israel and Hezbollah."
In Tel Aviv, Hochstein met with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who stated that there is a short window for reaching diplomatic agreements with Hezbollah. He added that the likely outcome is a new reality in the northern arena that would allow for the safe return of residents to settlements along the border with Lebanon. Israeli Chief of Staff General Herzi Halevi, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Michael Herzog, and other senior defense officials attended the Gallant-Hochstein meeting.
Shifting from political and diplomatic developments to field developments, information from "Nidaa Al-Watan" indicated that UNIFIL Force Commander Major General Arolado Latharo, who successively met with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, requested that officials intervene with Hezbollah to ensure that it keeps UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army bases uninvolved in conflicts in the south so that its weapons are not fired towards Israel, which retaliates indiscriminately against these bases.
