Lebanon

Indicators of an Imminent Countdown to a Potential Comprehensive Explosion Between Israel and Hezbollah

Indicators of an Imminent Countdown to a Potential Comprehensive Explosion Between Israel and Hezbollah

Close to the massive funeral held in the village of Kherbet Selm for the prominent military leader of Hezbollah, Wassim Hassan Tawil, who was assassinated by Israel the day before yesterday, the Israeli state escalated its campaign of assassinations yesterday, targeting another key leader in Hezbollah's military position, Ali Hussein Barji, who is responsible for the party's aerial unit. This raises severe concerns regarding the escalating confrontations that Israel is pursuing on the southern front of Lebanon, whether through assassination campaigns or direct military engagements. Naturally, the intensity of Hezbollah's ground responses to the assassinations, such as the targeting of the Israeli military command position in the Upper Galilee town of Safed, serves as an indicator that the countdown to a potential comprehensive explosion between Israel and Hezbollah is approaching, suggesting that it may become challenging to contain or deter a slide into war—whether intentional or due to rapid, unanticipated developments leading to significant losses inflicted by one side against the other in a fierce confrontation, as reported by the newspaper "An-Nahar."

Given the alarming escalation of confrontation, both through targeted killings and ground clashes, it is no longer surprising to see international and Western envoys rushing to Beirut, reflecting the heightening external concerns about the potential uncontrolled nature of the ongoing confrontations along the southern Lebanese border with Israel that have so far remained within certain "red lines," despite the ferocity of these confrontations. Therefore, attention will now be focused on the new mission undertaken by Amos Hochstein, the Senior Advisor to the White House on Energy, who, according to "An-Nahar," is expected to arrive in Beirut today for a two-day visit, prior to the arrival of the new U.S. Ambassador, Lisa Johnson, tomorrow, who will assume her duties as the Chargé d'affaires for the United States until she presents her credentials as Ambassador to the newly elected President.

The details regarding Hochstein's mission have been the subject of local speculation without any sufficient and decisive clarity while awaiting the start of his meetings with official Lebanese officials, which he will initiate without waiting for the new ambassador, reflecting the urgent and exceptional nature of his visit and what he intends to convey regarding ideas and directions aimed at cooling the southern front first and commencing new negotiations focused on moving the land border demarcation file between Lebanon and Israel. "An-Nahar" learned that Hochstein will hold his meeting with the Speaker of the House Nabih Berri at the conclusion of his visit tomorrow after completing his other meetings in Beirut. Hochstein had previously met with Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab in Rome two days ago.

On the eve of the arrival of the American envoy, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations, Jean-Pierre Lacroix, met with Lebanese officials, affirming "the Secretary-General's commitment and that of the UN to Lebanon and their continued efforts with the international community to reduce tensions, leading to a permanent ceasefire." The UN envoy expressed concern about the ongoing escalation in the region and Lebanon, urging all parties to exercise restraint and to support the army in southern Lebanon, while continuing close cooperation between it and UNIFIL.

Reports indicated that Lacroix requested that Lebanon take specific actions to prevent the deterioration of the situation towards a worse scenario while he carried a message from Lebanon emphasizing the need for comprehensive implementation of Resolution 1701, including withdrawal from the Shebaa Farms and Kfarshouba Heights. However, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who was supposed to arrive in Beirut from Cairo yesterday to begin talks with several officials, faced delays in her arrival due to logistical issues related to passports. Nevertheless, her planned visit to Lebanon remains on schedule, and she is expected to meet with Prime Minister Najib Mikati before noon. The Lebanese Foreign Ministry issued a statement apologizing to journalists for canceling a previously scheduled meeting yesterday evening between Minister Abdullah Bou Habib and his German counterpart due to circumstances beyond their control.

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