Experts have announced that U.S. President Joe Biden’s new strategy towards Yemen aims to weaken the Houthi movement, but it does not go as far as seeking to defeat them or engage in direct confrontation with Iran, the Houthis' main ally, which increases the risks of a prolonged conflict. The strategy, a mix of limited military strikes and sanctions, appears to aim at preventing wider conflict in the Middle East despite Washington’s effort to punish the Houthis for their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. However, it is unclear whether it will accomplish Biden's main goal of stopping Houthi attacks. Analysts warn that this compromise attempt may mean continued disruptions in the vital maritime routes for global trade, with the risk of a larger regional military confrontation remaining.
Seth Jones, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stated, “I think it's a long-term strategy. But I don’t think it will be successful,” adding that “limited strikes on Houthi targets will not deter attacks in the Red Sea.”
Support
The Houthis claim that their attacks on ships in the Red Sea are intended to support Palestinians against Israel, an issue that is popular in Yemen. Houthi campaigns have disrupted global trade, increased inflation fears, and heightened concerns about potential widespread instability in the Middle East as tensions rise between Israel and Hamas. After months of warnings, Biden last week authorized airstrikes on Houthi military targets, hitting missiles, drones, and radar stations. However, the Houthis continued their attacks.
On Tuesday, the U.S. military struck four anti-ship ballistic missiles while they were being prepared for targets in the Red Sea. Another strike on Wednesday destroyed 14 missiles. Both attacks indicate that the U.S. is selecting military targets based on real-time intelligence. An American official stated, “If we see a target, we will strike it.”
Biden’s national security advisor publicly hinted at the necessity for further military action. Jake Sullivan stated on Tuesday, "We expected the Houthis to continue attempting to jeopardize this vital artery, and we still reserve the right to take further action."
Some U.S. officials and experts believe the Houthis welcome confrontation with the U.S., saying it helps them gain popular support in Yemen and polish their image in the Middle East as part of an Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance.” The Houthis seem to believe they can withstand U.S. bombardment, even if some of their missile and drone stock is destroyed. Gerald Feierstein, former U.S. ambassador to Yemen, noted, "In reality, it’s relatively easy to replace drones and missiles,” adding, “Whether they obtained the engines or guidance systems or anything else from Iran, they can assemble the parts themselves.”
**Inclusion of the Houthis on the Terrorist Groups List**
The U.S. strategy for balanced escalation became clear on Wednesday when the Biden administration returned the Houthis to the "specially designated global terrorist" list. However, the U.S. administration postponed implementation for 30 days to mitigate the decision's impact on humanitarian assistance to Yemen, and Biden did not go as far as redesignating the group as a "foreign terrorist organization." The designation as a foreign terrorist organization would impose much tougher regulations on the Houthis than merely listing them as a "specially designated global terrorist" entity.
Gregory Johnsen, a researcher at the Gulf States Institute in Washington, questioned the effectiveness of this move, stating, “This is largely a symbolic act that will have some humanitarian repercussions, but it will not prevent the Houthis from launching these attacks.”
