As the war in Gaza enters its fifth month today, the supporting fronts, notably the southern Lebanese front, remain open to all options, with a new situation that presents options and possibilities for the upcoming phase in light of the difficult state on the Israeli front at all its levels. With the arrival of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the Middle East, a region defined by conflicts and the policies of major powers regardless of the ongoing wars and their results, a series of questions have surfaced as reported by "Al-Liwaa."
1. Will Israel and the Palestinian territories coexist for an extended period in an unrelenting cycle of war, and for how long?
2. Can the head of American diplomacy, sympathetic to Israel, establish a roadmap with his partners to exit the quagmire of war?
3. Will the region enter into a truce during the blessed month of Ramadan, starting at the end of the first third of March next year?
In response, diplomatic sources indicated that the visit of the French Foreign Minister to Lebanon is part of the visits being made by several European foreign ministers and international envoys, aimed at containing the consequences of armed clashes between Hezbollah and the Israeli occupation forces along the southern Lebanese border and working to prevent the expansion of these clashes into a large-scale war, while mediating between the two parties to end the clashes and agree on establishing security arrangements based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
The sources denied any knowledge of specific French initiatives being carried by the French minister but did not rule out that he might carry specific ideas to propose during discussions with officials, based on the good relations that bind France with Lebanon and Israel, and through which they could resolve issues and bring closer views to put an end to the escalation between Hezbollah and Israel, even though achieving such a goal seems difficult with the ongoing Israeli war on the Gaza Strip.
The sources noted that foreign ministers' discussions focused on the necessity of containing the ongoing clashes in the south and enforcing Resolution 1701, while the issue of Lebanese presidential elections was sidelined, clearly indicating that the priority for these visitors and envoys is to end the escalation in the south rather than elect a new president.
Furthermore, the sources distinguished between the visit of the French Foreign Minister to Lebanon, which is his first since taking office, and the task of French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, who is exclusively tasked with facilitating the election of a president. They mentioned that no date has been set for Le Drian's visit to Lebanon yet, indicating that the presidential election issue remains suspended, awaiting at least the end of the war in Gaza.
The diplomatic sources also discussed the mission of U.S. presidential adviser Amos Hochstein, highlighting that his visit to the region is currently limited to Israel, while his visit to Lebanon has not been proposed yet, unless he carries useful Israeli proposals that need to be presented to Lebanese officials. However, the Lebanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not received any information regarding this.
Regardless of the ongoing situation, Lebanon continues its political life, government activities, and daily living, not only in a state of coexistence but also seeking to address what can be remedied with available resources. After the Acting Governor of the Central Bank, Wassim Mansouri, fulfilled his promise to issue a circular allowing the withdrawal of 150 dollars, attention now turns to how these measures will be implemented starting today, putting the ball in the banks' court, which are holding meetings to decide on action.
The Central Bank issued two circulars, with the first (166) allowing owners of dollar accounts opened after October 31, 2019, to withdraw 150 dollars monthly under specific conditions (attached here). This circular serves as a replacement for the now-expired circular 151 at the end of 2023 and will continue until the end of June 2024, and is subject to renewal.
**Berri: "They Come to Embarrass Me!"**
On the presidential front, President Nabih Berri revealed at the beginning of the week a series of positions or milestones that would clarify ambiguities and pave the way for a clear map in the presidential process:
1. Berri stated about his meeting with the ambassadors of the Quintuple: "I agreed with them that they would help us elect someone we name as Lebanese, not someone they name. The Quintuple is united this time, and they told me: 'We have no candidate at all, and we have no veto on any name, and we are ready to help you with what you want.'"
2. Berri pointed out that he heard from all the ambassadors that there is no veto on any name, including from Saudi Arabia, and we agreed that electing a president requires consensus; they wished to call it consultation, not dialogue, and I was cooperative with everything that serves the presidential file, and I said if necessary, the Deputy Speaker could lead the dialogue, and I have no problem with that.
3. Berri emphasized that there can be no election without consultation or dialogue, thus no consecutive sessions. If they have any other way, "let them assure me, and I am present," as without consultation, we repeat sessions without the ability to elect a president; I cannot prevent any team from boycotting any session as it is a constitutional right, and the council cannot secure the quorum of 86 without agreements and understandings. I am not asking for consensus; I am talking about agreeing to secure the quorum of 86. Even if I held fifty consecutive sessions, we would not reach a president, so I proposed a dialogue lasting a maximum of 7 days, "they should assume I am bluffing them, and they come to embarrass me."
In a gesture towards former Prime Minister Saad Hariri's participation in commemorating the 19th anniversary of the martyrdom of his father, President Rafik Hariri, Berri welcomed Hariri, saying: "Welcome back to political work whenever you decide." The recent elections proved that Saad Hariri remains the most successful, despite his withdrawal, as from the Great River to Naqoura, he garnered 24% of the Sunni community without participating in the elections.
Opposition parliamentary sources noted to "Al-Liwaa" that President Berri's refusal to call for consecutive election sessions before conducting dialogue for consensus, as he claims, places the presidential entitlement in jeopardy. They observed that the Speaker's insistence on this principle contradicts the constitutional process regarding the presidential elections, pointing out that repeating this stance obstructs the entitlement, and conducting dialogue before calling for an election session is rejected by the opposition forces. Furthermore, knowledgeable political circles informed "Al-Liwaa" that efforts by the Quintuple committee will not halt regarding this issue, and no suspension of these efforts has been decided, clarifying that what the Speaker said regarding dialogue falls within a new attempt to succeed in this call and test the positions of the forces regarding it, especially since he believes there is a need for a local initiative.
