Israel's orders for Gaza residents to move south toward the Egyptian border during its assault and the deteriorating humanitarian situation have raised concerns among Arabs and the United Nations about the potential forced crossing of Palestinians over the border. These fears have intensified as Israeli forces prepare for a ground offensive on the city of Rafah, located directly on the Egyptian border, where hundreds of thousands of displaced individuals have fled from violence in the northern sector, trapped by miserable conditions.
Two Egyptian security sources stated, "Cairo has sent about 40 tanks and armored personnel carriers to northeastern Sinai over the past two weeks as part of a series of measures to enhance security along the border with Gaza."
#### What Lies Behind the Concerns?
Palestinians have long been haunted by memories of the Nakba, which saw 700,000 of them expelled from their homes with the declaration of the State of Israel in 1948. Many were forced or fled to neighboring Arab countries, including Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon, and many of them or their descendants still live in refugee camps in these countries, with some having gone to Gaza. Israel disputes the narrative that they were expelled from their homes.
Since October 7, the conflict has witnessed unprecedented Israeli bombings and a ground invasion in Gaza, leading to the destruction of urban areas across the region. Palestinians and UN officials state that there are no longer any safe zones within Gaza to take shelter.
#### What Happened During This Conflict?
Before launching its ground assault on Gaza, Israel initially requested that Palestinians in northern Gaza move to what it termed "safe areas in the south." As the offensive broadened, Israel demanded they head south toward Rafah. According to UN estimates, approximately 85% of the 2.3 million residents of Gaza, which is one of the most densely populated areas in the world, have already displaced from their homes and are now crammed into a smaller area near the border.
#### What Happened Previously at the Gaza Border?
No war of such intensity has occurred in Gaza before, and in recent conflicts and clashes with Israel, there has not been mass fleeing from Gaza across the border. However, there have been incidents where the Gaza border with Egypt was breached, although the number of crossers was in the hundreds or thousands, and these individuals were not seeking refuge or intending to stay.
After the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, Palestinians broke through the fence and some used ropes to climb over. In one instance, armed Palestinians executed a collision with a concrete barrier to create a gap. Hamas breached the border again in 2008, challenging the blockade imposed by Israel, while Egypt tightened its border controls after Hamas took control of Gaza from the Palestinian Authority in 2007. The border remained breached for about ten days before Egypt reclosed it.
#### Could Significant Displacement Occur in This Conflict?
Many Palestinians inside Gaza say they would not leave even if given the opportunity, fearing it would lead to another permanent displacement reminiscent of what happened in 1948. Meanwhile, Egypt strictly controls its border, only allowing a few thousand foreigners, dual nationals, and a few others to leave Gaza.
Egypt and other Arab countries vehemently oppose any attempt to push Palestinians across the border. The scope of this conflict surpasses other crises and uprisings in Gaza over the past decades, with the humanitarian disaster for Palestinians worsening day by day.
#### What Do Arab Countries and the United Nations Say?
Since the early days of the conflict, Arab governments, particularly Egypt and Jordan, Israel's neighbors, have stated that Palestinians should not be expelled from the land where they seek to establish their future state, which includes the West Bank and Gaza Strip. These countries, like the Palestinians, fear that any mass movement across the border would undermine the prospects for a "two-state solution" and leave Arab countries to deal with the consequences.
As the humanitarian crisis escalates, senior UN officials have expressed the same concerns about potential mass displacement. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated on December 10, "I expect the public order system to collapse completely soon, and the chapters of this may unfold in a worse situation involving pandemics and increasing pressure for mass displacement to Egypt."
In turn, Philippe Lazzarini, the Commissioner-General of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), wrote in the Los Angeles Times on December 9, "The developments we are witnessing indicate attempts to transfer Palestinians to Egypt, regardless of whether they will stay there or be resettled elsewhere."
#### What Has the Israeli Government and Its Politicians Said?
The Israeli government claims it is only asking Palestinians to temporarily leave their homes for their safety. However, comments from some Israeli politicians, some of whom are close to the government, raise concerns among Palestinians and Arabs about a new Nakba. In response to a question about the Israeli military assault and the displacement of Gaza residents, Israeli Minister of Agriculture Avi Dichter told Channel 12 Israel on November 11, "This is the Nakba of Gaza, and practically there is no way to manage the war in the way the Israeli Defense Forces want within Gaza and among the crowds between tanks and soldiers." Dichter is a member of the Likud party, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and is also a minister in the inner cabinet.
