Lebanon is awaiting a detailed report from "TotalEnergies" regarding the results of drilling the first well at the potential Kana field in block 9, expected at the end of February. The company had previously informed stakeholders that no commercial exploration was found just four days after the start of the Al-Aqsa Flood operation in Gaza. This announcement raised skepticism among some about the declaration that "there is no gas in the first exploratory well in the Kana field," linking it to the political events in Gaza and the departure of the "Transocean" drilling rig from Lebanese waters to protect its crew, as mentioned in "Al-Diyar."
Sources in the oil sector noted that Lebanon has been struggling in the oil and gas sector for years, despite the existing intention to avoid wasting more time and to accelerate exploration efforts to achieve the first commercial gas or oil discovery, thereby truly joining the club of oil-producing nations. The political circumstances, both internally and externally surrounding Lebanon, have also hindered the attraction of oil companies for block tenders. After initially having 52 international companies interested in exploring the offshore blocks in Lebanon's exclusive economic zone, only three remain at the end of the first and second licensing rounds: the same consortium that drilled in blocks 4 and 9 (TotalEnergies from France, Eni from Italy, and QatarEnergy, which replaced the Russian company Novatek upon commencing drilling in block 9).
The same pattern was observed during the launch of the first, second, and most recently the third licensing rounds, as conditions were not favorable for such developments. However, since political events cannot be awaited and to avoid missing available opportunities, the Ministry of Energy and the Petroleum Sector Management Authority are working to expedite exploration patterns in the licensed blocks and those that require tendering. After the closure of the second licensing round on October 2, two offers were submitted by a consortium of companies to tender the bordering blocks 8 and 10. This demonstrated the consortium's interest in continuing research in Lebanese waters, even though their experience in blocks 4 and 9 was not encouraging.
Regarding concerns that the submitted offers were unjust to Lebanon and its oil wealth, the same sources pointed out that the Petroleum Sector Management Authority reviewed them and found they did not align significantly with the terms of reference. However, from a technical perspective—specifically the commitments to work proposed by "Total"—and from a financial and commercial standpoint based on the financial offer presented, which is the result of future exploration, they deemed the offers acceptable with the best chances of success but not under the consortium's original terms. Therefore, a recommendation was made to Energy Minister Walid Fayyad for conditional approval after revising the offer, adding additional terms, and making several improvements. This indicates that they did not accept the consortium's terms as they stood.
As confirmed by sources, Lebanon now faces three possibilities from the consortium regarding blocks 8 and 10:
1. The consortium accepts Lebanon's conditional offer and comes to Beirut to sign it by February 16.
2. The consortium requests more time to prepare the necessary documents and guarantees.
3. The consortium rejects the offer.
Lebanon has not yet committed to these blocks, and there is a significant probability that companies will not come to sign the terms set by the cabinet based on the recommendation of the authority and the energy minister. If this occurs, Lebanon would be in a position to re-tender blocks 8, 10, and 4 (which the consortium abandoned in October of last year) during the third licensing round, hence the importance of opening this round to avoid losing more time in these strategically sensitive blocks amidst the conflict with Israel.
The sources told "Al-Diyar" that the third licensing round includes the tendering of the remaining Lebanese blocks, taking into account the situation of the border blocks 8, 9, and 10 with Israel, and noting the significant factor of the ongoing race between Lebanon and Israel to exploit them, particularly since they are adjacent to the enemy's blocks. It is also noted that the blocks opposite block 8 were awarded to "Israel" just a week after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, suggesting that the Gaza war does not negatively affect the continuation of work in the offshore blocks in the waters of occupied Palestine by Israel.
Regarding drilling in the first well in block 9, where "Total" did not find gas but water, as previously announced, and whether a second well will be drilled in the Kana field, the same sources confirmed that the most important outcome of the drilling operations, whether the results are negative or positive, is that Lebanon now has a better understanding of the petroleum system in its waters. Furthermore, it has established geological similarities between the southern region, particularly block 9, and the gas-producing geological areas in the waters of occupied Palestine. This similarity has been confirmed and is a positive aspect to build upon in future stages. This indicates that the gas-producing sandstone layers that were the original drilling objective were indeed confirmed to exist, although their content was not as hoped.
The sources further noted that the results from the first well do not eliminate the possibility of discovering gas in the Kana field in a second well or in block 9 in general. The results of the well drilling are unaffected by any political circumstances in the country. Therefore, Lebanon awaits the detailed report from "Total" on the results of the first well drilling in Kana to study it and subsequently discuss future plans with the consortium, including whether there is an intention to drill a second well in block 9. However, from now until May 25, 2025, the deadline for the first exploration phase, the consortium has fulfilled its contractual obligation to drill this well.
