Lebanon

Tensions Rising in the South: War and Settlement Equally Likely

Tensions Rising in the South: War and Settlement Equally Likely

The southern front remains intense, with Hezbollah's drones and missiles continuously responding to Israeli bombardments and southern assaults. The result from yesterday was the martyrdom of three Hezbollah members, while a significant number of Israeli soldiers were reported injured, according to "Al-Anbaa" electronic. Although a decision for a wide-scale war has not yet been made in Israel, this was clearly reflected in the statements of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Foreign Minister Israel Katz, who indicated that "Israel is nearing a resolution." However, it is evident that no decision has been finalized, as efforts in politics and diplomacy are still being awaited before possibly engaging in a destructive war.

Time is running out, and according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Rafah operation will conclude in a few days. Consequently, as anticipated, attention will certainly turn to the Lebanon front afterward. Observers believe that the stakes for both the expansion of the war and for negotiation are equal. The Israeli government, which is always prepared for war and aims to impose a new security reality that brings settlers back to the north, juxtaposed with Hezbollah’s refusal to withdraw north to the Litani river unless there is a similar Israeli withdrawal, indicates that the situation is complicated.

At the same time, the cost of war for Israel will be extremely high, not just for Lebanon. According to observers, Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has openly declared that he does not seek to expand the war. Meanwhile, Netanyahu suggests that his government is ready for a settlement if it meets his terms.

In this context, psychological warfare and fire reconnaissance are at their peak. Israeli military forces continue to gather in the north after their roles in Gaza have concluded, with preparations underway for hospitals and facilities to accommodate the expansion of war through maneuvers. Additionally, military aircraft do not leave the skies and are increasingly violating the sound barrier, conveying multiple messages. During the night from Saturday to Sunday, Israeli warplanes widely broke the sound barrier over various Lebanese airspaces, signaling that the air force is capable of operating freely. This breach may carry the objective of assessing Hezbollah’s missile capabilities and their ability to hit fighter jets, a tactic referred to as fire reconnaissance according to "Al-Anbaa" electronic.

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