The position of the head of the "Free Patriotic Movement," MP Gebran Bassil, regarding the southern file cannot be separated from the presidential file. However, there has been a significant change in the strategic perspective of the movement regarding ongoing events. The "blank check" that he used to grant to "Hezbollah" has expired, and the general stance is now upon specific issues. The relationship between the movement and the party was at its best during the initial stages of President Michel Aoun's presidency, but numerous disagreements contributed to widening the rift, including accusations by Bassil that the party had not supported the presidency, thereby limiting Speaker Nabih Berri's actions aimed at undermining and failing the presidency, according to "Nidaa Al-Watan."
All these factors remain manageable, but the primary reason that exploded the situation was Hezbollah's endorsement, along with President Nabih Berri's support for the nomination of the head of the Marada Movement, Sleiman Frangieh, for the presidency. This led to a significant rift that has yet to heal. Consequently, the Free Patriotic Movement stands in the middle today, attempting to play the role of a balancing force and a captain at the same time. It understands that the resistance cannot elect Frangieh unless Bassil agrees and grants him the support of his bloc and Christian backing, just as it understands that the opposition cannot unify due to its lack of a single maestro and its fragmentation, with each party trying to assert itself.
Bassil operates on the principle that he has nothing to lose, having hit his lowest political days post-revolution and after being subjected to U.S. sanctions. Now, he is beginning the journey out of the abyss by seeking to rally the Christian base and presenting himself as the one preventing the resistance candidate from reaching Baabda, keen on the presidential position by supporting a candidate who possesses at least some backing from the main Christian forces.
Bassil maintains a relationship with Speaker Berri despite previous clashes, supports the initiative of the National Moderation Bloc, and aims to keep good relations with Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, particularly in rejecting the actions of caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who has been acting as if the country can continue without a president. Al-Rahi, Bassil, and other Christian factions share a united stance against Mikati's government excesses.
Just as Bassil deals with Hezbollah piece by piece without severing ties completely, the Lebanese Forces treat Bassil according to his logic. Up until now, Dr. Samir Geagea has not scheduled a meeting with Bassil, with the Lebanese Forces relying on communication channels in Parliament, particularly between MPs Fadi Karam and George Attallah.
Although a meeting between Bassil and U.S. Ambassador Lisa Johnson has not occurred so far due to sanctions obstacles, information confirms ongoing communication between the movement and the Americans. This communication occurs through Bassil's close MPs or Lebanese businessmen associated with him, aiming to ease tensions and assure Washington that Bassil has shifted to a different position, as evidenced by his stance in the presidential election and his refusal to support Hezbollah's candidate, as reported by "Nidaa Al-Watan."
What draws more attention is Bassil's good relationship with the Qataris in light of Doha's efforts to assist him in lifting sanctions, amidst talk of promises for greater Qatari investments in the energy sector in Lebanon. Several opposition MPs have reiterated that the Qatari list of suggested names for the third option came following Bassil's approval. Bassil has previously included the acting Director-General of General Security, Brigadier Elias Bechara, in the list to undermine the candidacy of Army Commander Joseph Aoun. He is currently attempting to promote the name of Ambassador George Khoury, while the Qataris have reportedly confirmed that there is no presidential hurdle for Bassil, but it resides elsewhere.
