Israel is attempting to influence the decision of Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, regarding the expected Lebanese response to the assassination of senior military leader Fouad Shukr in an Israeli airstrike that targeted a location in southern Beirut last Tuesday. According to Israeli Army Radio, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant warned that Nasrallah could drag Lebanon into paying "very high costs," amid Israeli beliefs that "there is room to influence Nasrallah's decisions regarding a response to Israel."
The report emphasized that Nasrallah's final decision regarding the anticipated response to Shukr's assassination "has not yet been clarified," indicating that "there is an opportunity to influence the choice of targets, the scale of the attack, and how it will be executed," even if the party has "set possible directions" for the attack. According to Israeli Army Radio, "Tel Aviv believes that Nasrallah has not yet made a final decision regarding the expected attack."
Analysts suggest that "Nasrallah may be susceptible to internal pressure from Lebanese citizens who fear widespread destruction in Lebanon," and thus he may opt for a limited response to avoid getting involved in a larger war. The report added that "Galant intended with his statements to clarify the risks of escalation to Nasrallah, especially if he attempts to target areas with high population density, which increases the risk of civilian casualties."
