After the middle of this month, the five-member committee is preparing for a new "trend" in the presidential file, under the fixed banner of working to provide common points among Lebanese leaders. While it is true that recent meetings on this matter have not made significant progress, it does not mean that committee members have retracted their mediation efforts to foster a core solution to the presidential vacancy based on local foundations, away from imposing specific choices or decisions. For those asking what the new round of ambassadorial meetings will bring and whether there is a specific strategy, the indications converge on affirming that the central issue is the pursuit of ensuring the presidential elections and how to prevent deadlock in this file. While this may involve a set of known options under the title of the third choice and through consultative sessions, the preference remains with it, given that it stems from local efforts through the National Moderation Bloc initiative or through MP Ghassan Skaff's initiative, as stated in "Al-Liwaa".
While members of the bloc believe they have done their part, their efforts are still awaiting some answers before anything can be announced, especially since there is no progress or regression. This means that the attachment to this endeavor remains in place until further notice. If the members of the five-member committee express their support for the initiative, it means that it forms the basis for moving forward, and perhaps previous statements from some ambassadors reflected this outcome.
As for linking the committee's movement to expectations about the situation in the south, this does not seem logical, especially since committee members did not mention any indication in this regard despite their concerns over the rising tensions in the south. In this context, informed political sources express to "Al-Liwaa" their belief that the ambassadors' meeting with House Speaker Nabih Berri is pivotal in clarifying the position of the Shiite duo and whether there has been any change in the approach connected to the dialogue prior to any election session. It is known that President Berri has said all he has to say, and no new presidential position has been recorded for him, thus making the five-member committee's round subject to the same conditions. However, things practically clarify more after Eid al-Fitr, and it is believed that no one can predict what will happen on the southern front or in the field facts, knowing that analyses are talking about surprises after Eid. Here, there is a prevailing belief that the presidential file may regress again unless a decisive timeline is established through specific external pressures, indicating that the escalation between Israel and Iran may lead to turning developments, especially since Iran has not determined where it will respond to Israel.
These sources indicate that members of the five-member committee have previously informed those they met with that their effort does not negate any other initiatives or the constitutional procedure that the opposition forces insist on, as there can be no elections without it. They say that this committee will work to support or revive the bloc's initiative in some way, especially as it is subject to development, with eyes remaining on Hezbollah's position and any indication that serves to advance a new nomination away from the principle of "this is my candidate, and that’s that." The party's atmosphere does not seem to suggest any change in strategy, emphasizing that there are no pre-planned activities for either the five-member committee or the National Moderation Bloc concerning their upcoming activities. It is known that the next phase for them is not about feeling the political pulse, but rather about seeking common ground among political forces based on limiting the nominated names to a main list, noting the absence of discussion on this file, even at the level of a statement or a tweet, or anything from the concerned parties. Does this have to do with fears of the war expanding?
Here, the same sources point out that the presidential file may be discussed separately from developments in the south, and it may be postponed depending on any qualitative development. It is difficult to set specific expectations, especially regarding the fate of this file. After Eid al-Fitr, presidential discourse may differ, or it may not, as the bet on a positive atmosphere after the holiday is sometimes based on incorrect assumptions. In any case, the picture will become clearer soon, according to "Al-Liwaa".
