The list of targets that Iran could use to respond to the Israeli attack on its consulate in Damascus seems extensive. There are many Israeli consulates and embassies in the region stretching from Azerbaijan to the heart of the Gulf and the Middle East. However, there are significant and inevitable risks from any retaliation, and the problem lies in the fact that none of these targets will serve the purpose of demonstrating its power in the region or preventing similar Israeli or American attacks.
The entire region is heading towards new developments. Professor at Tehran University and Middle East expert Mir Qasem Mo'meni stated that the region is on the cusp of significant new changes, also noting that "the groups and individuals associated with the Islamic Republic will face increased pressures to distance themselves from Iran." Mo'meni mentioned that "today, there is pressure on Syria to return to the Arab fold and the Arab League, which means reducing Syria's relations with Iran. This pressure has also been applied to Iraq, and in the case of Lebanese Hezbollah, we see that Lebanon is also feeling the same pressure."
He added, "These pressures will intensify next year after the American elections, and groups and individuals who have ties with the Islamic Republic will experience more pressures to distance themselves from Iran."
When asked what can be expected regarding the continuation of the Gaza war in light of recent developments in the region and the Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, he said, "The Middle East is ripe with significant developments. The first important issue is the 2024 U.S. elections, which will take place in a few months. Any of the candidates in this election could play a significant role in global developments if they win."
He indicated, "If Biden continues his presidency, we will witness important decisions, while if Trump enters the White House, there will be a different trajectory in the region concerning the Gaza war, the Middle East, Arab-Israeli relations, NATO, Ukraine, and other issues."
NATO may also get involved in the war in Ukraine. He added, "Conflicts in Ukraine have evolved, and events are progressing at a faster pace, so there is an expectation that NATO may also intervene in the war in Ukraine," pointing out: "This situation in itself could create a new problem in today's world."
Mo'meni clarified, "Regarding Gaza and issues related to Lebanon and Syria, Israel is bombarding and slaughtering innocent people in Gaza under various pretexts. Israel has created the opportunity to justify the assassinations and killings it has carried out in Syria and Lebanon. Following the assassination of several Iranian military advisors in Syria who held political and diplomatic passports and were present as official advisors, it must be said that Israel is trying to expand the war, and Netanyahu personally is trying to keep himself involved in the war due to pressures from America and public opinion domestically. The development of the war and the threat of the external enemy is the method that Netanyahu has chosen."
The professor at Tehran University continued, "The coming months are likely to witness significant developments in the region, in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and the Gaza region." He explained, "By targeting the Iranian consulate, Israel announced that it does not recognize any borders, does not believe in any international rules and regulations, and does not even accept decisions from the United Nations Security Council." He added, "Israel has sent this message not only to Iran but to the world that it will attack whenever and wherever it wants. This situation demonstrates the weakness of international organizations that cannot stop Israel. Another point is the issue of Gaza, where Israel controls and occupies most of the Gaza Strip and is in the process of cleansing it. Due to pressures from international organizations, Israel intends to manage this issue one way or another, so it seems we will witness significant developments in the region, in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and the Gaza area in the coming months."
Mo'meni noted that one of Israel's efforts was to draw Iran into a direct war, saying: "The aim of the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus was to encourage Iran to launch a counterattack, so that Israel could, under this pretext, compel America to engage in direct warfare." He explained, "Fortunately, with the awareness and intelligence of Iranian authorities, the country did not fall into the Israeli trap. Iran has the right to avenge its martyrs, but in the current situation, it has not entered Netanyahu's game."
He continued, "If Trump becomes president, in my opinion, the issues of Ukraine and Palestine will be resolved sooner, as Arabs today are looking for peace in the region and want to achieve desired development. The war in Gaza and Palestine stands as an obstacle for them, and this group can pressure the Israeli government to agree to establish a Palestinian state and officially recognize the Palestinian state."
