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The Dynamics of Bassil and the "Nerve Tightening" Battles

The Dynamics of Bassil and the

It is significant that the head of the "Free Patriotic Movement" (FPM), MP Gebran Bassil, began his visit to the city of Jezzine by visiting the home of former MP Ibrahim Azar, a member of President Nabih Berri's bloc and the son of the late MP Samir Azar, who received 11,719 votes in the 2022 elections. This initiation seems to convey a message to Berri that Bassil is not an adversary to his influence in Jezzine. Bassil is skilled at sending messages, both in form and content. For instance, during his visit to Zahle, he sent multiple messages, whether through visiting the home of the late MP Elie Skaff and meeting his wife Maryam Skaff, or by visiting the home of MP Nicolas Fattouch. However, this openness toward opponents is met with rigidity toward former FPM members. In Jezzine, there is no presence of former MP lawyer Ziad Aswad, who is widely recognized as a source of "political headaches" for Bassil. It appears that the FPM leader has overlooked him, leaning instead on former MP Amal Abu Zeid and the head of the Jezzine Municipal Union, Khalil Harfouch. Lawyer Aswad, expelled from the party, was "exceptional" in receiving Bassil in Jezzine, promptly responding with a tweet filled with all kinds of accusatory traits, reminding him in another tweet that he said in 2009 from Jezzine that he "came to liberate it."

It seems that Bassil's tours will be titled across all regions and circles as "nerve tightening" for FPM members, especially since feelings of discontent appear to transcend regions: If Bassil decides to embark on a "nerve tightening" tour in northern Metn, similar to what he did in Zahle and Jezzine, where will he start? From Batghrine, the stronghold of the Mer family? And does this beginning send a message to Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab in Dahr al-Shwair, implying that he is not the "first Orthodox"? Could this be the reason he positions his administrative deputy, Ghassan Khoury, an Orthodox from the town of Mansouriyah, to his right? Will he visit MP Ibrahim Kanaan? Or is his avoidance of him a message of exclusion alongside his "arch-rival" Elias Bou Saab?

The challenge of "nerve tightening" in northern Metn will not be easy, as this district serves as an electoral "reservoir" for the party, which once ousted President Amin Gemayel in the face of Dr. Kamil Khoury. It is no longer what it used to be, as the sidelined individuals now outnumber the remaining ones: from Elias Bou Saab to Ibrahim Kanaan, to Nabil Nakoula, to Mansour Fadl. Against all of them, Minister Bassil has preferred his deputy Ghassan Khoury.

The "nerve tightening" in Keserwan may be less difficult than in northern Metn, as Minister Bassil is comfortable with the performance of MP Nada Boustani from the "Energy Ministry Group" (along with MP Cesar Abi Khalil), who is among the political and media platforms that form the first line of defense for Bassil, alongside MP Cesar Abi Khalil, former MP Adi Maalouf, and potentially future MP Wadi Abi Akal.

In Byblos, "nerve tightening" is not as simple as Keserwan; it is not easy to "remove" current MP Simon Abi Ramia, even for the candidacy of lawyer Wadi Akal or Dr. Naji Hayek, who, it must be said, dealt Bassil a "lesson" by selecting him as his deputy. In the past, when the priority was the "Maronite Agreement," Dr. Hayek’s political discourse was criticized, but now it seems that this discourse is "politically sold" and in high demand.

In southern Metn, "nerve tightening" appears similar to Byblos, as MP Alain Aoun is not "an easy target," and his alliance within the FPM with Ibrahim Kanaan and Simon Abi Ramia provides him with protection due to the implications of his parliamentary immunity.

Where will Bassil go in his battles within the FPM? Will he be able to accomplish the purging process as long as General Michel Aoun is capable of supporting him? Bassil has many points of strength compared to the points of weakness of his opponents within the FPM, who do not form a cohesive unit. Their state of "disarray" does not make them a force capable of confronting a party leader who possesses a dynamic which they lack.

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