In a second tour to the Middle East, French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné will visit Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the West Bank from Saturday until May 1. The Israeli war on Gaza and Israel's threat to invade Rafah and its implications will be the main focus of his discussions at the four stops. Paris believes that the Israeli attack on Rafah appears certain in the near to medium term, which France and others are trying to prevent, according to "Asharq Al-Awsat."
Beirut will be Séjourné's first stop, where his mission will include following up on France's efforts to prevent clashes between Hezbollah and Israel from escalating into an open war. Paris views the ongoing changes on the ground as a significant concern, noting that attacks have increased since the Iranian operation against Israel. Discussions will focus on a proposal Séjourné presented to the Lebanese and Israeli parties. It is reported that Paris shared the latest version of this proposal with Israel before the Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati's visit to France last week.
French sources, which declined to disclose these amendments, indicated that Paris "listened" to feedback from each side and is keen to reach a draft and suggestions acceptable to both parties, which it is currently amending for that purpose. Questions arise regarding the apparent competition between Paris and Washington in Lebanon and the differences between the proposals from both parties. In this context, Paris confirms that it has communicated its proposal to the American side, working from the outset with complete transparency while not denying the existence of competition with Washington; however, it is not pursuing it.
Paris believes that the situation is improving because the Americans have come to realize that they cannot reach a solution to the situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border alone. Evidence of this is that Hochstein visited Lebanon multiple times without success, which seems to have later helped push for coordination. Paris observes that Hochstein approached the Lebanese file from the angle of delineating maritime borders; therefore, his focus is on establishing boundaries, including land borders, and resolving disputes between Lebanon and Israel over 13 points and the Shebaa Farms. In contrast, the French approach considers the borders issue and initially aims at de-escalating military tensions, moving towards subsequent phases.
France sees both approaches as not contradictory and hopes to work in full coordination with the Americans. In any case, things are improving, and Jean-Yves Le Drian's visit to Washington and his meeting with Hochstein were thorough. What Paris wants is to strengthen coordination between the two parties.
Two additional files will be present during Séjourné's discussions in Beirut and Riyadh: the first addresses the presidential elections, and the second concerns the Syrian displacement issue. In the first file, Paris believes that events in Gaza, the Israeli-Iranian escalation, and Lebanon's potential involvement in a regional war could all serve as reasons for the delay or procrastination in filling the presidential vacancy. However, Paris also sees an alternative perspective, where the risks surrounding Lebanon should motivate the political class to fill the void. Paris denies having a candidate for the presidency, stating that the suitable candidate is one who can achieve consensus around themselves.
In Beirut, Séjourné will not meet any Hezbollah officials, as Paris considers Speaker Nabih Berri to be the link with the party's leadership. France does not hide that its communications with Hezbollah have never been interrupted, which distinguishes it from other Western countries, particularly the United States.
Regarding the issue of Syrian displacement to Lebanon, Paris’s position does not seem to have changed. On one hand, it asserts that it understands the burden Lebanon bears, recognizing that the danger has become existential, and it is working at the European level to help Lebanon manage it. On the other hand, Paris confirms that it does not oppose the return of Syrians to their homeland, but insists that the responsibility for their stay in Lebanon or elsewhere lies with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad for not ensuring the conditions for their return, which France emphasizes must be voluntary, safe, and dignified. Paris rejects claims that it and Germany and the United States deliberately oppose the return of Syrians and also expresses understanding of the precarious situation in Lebanon, especially after the recent killing of a Lebanese Forces official, which exacerbated the crisis, according to "Asharq Al-Awsat."
