Whether MP Alan Aoun has been officially and publicly expelled from the party of which he was one of the prominent founders, or whether the head of the "Free Patriotic Movement," Gibran Bassil, keeps the card in his pocket, as he does with Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab, for the sake of leaving the market for offers and demands open... the issue has surpassed those formal details that do not change the reality or Bassil's plan: suffocating opposing and dissenting MPs until they are either subdued or eliminated. This is all due to Bassil's escape from any internal accountability that would assess his behavior throughout his presidency of the party, offering a true evaluation that explains the reasons for the movement's decline and the accumulation of mistakes. This, in short, is the title of the phase concerning the "movement" president and behind him, its founder, former president Michel Aoun.
The mystery of the timing remains elusive, especially since this path of internal clashes between the party president and some MPs has existed for months, not just sprung up suddenly; thus, no urgent event or impending obligation can justify this confrontation, which remains subdued even though it is likely to explode and come to light with many of its details. Those familiar with the context of the relatively overt hidden conflict between Bassil and a number of Aounist MPs, who hold party membership cards, understand that the conflict is governed by the rules of chess, decided by the dissenting MPs, meaning that every action has a corresponding reaction. Therefore, these MPs remain silent, leaving the next move to Bassil, after which it will be their turn to speak.
In fact, the data at several political, electoral, and party levels have indicated that the "movement" will face a pivotal moment that may lead to its internal unity being shattered, at least concerning the parliamentary bloc, which will surely reflect on its party bases, especially since this disintegration affects MPs who represent popular cases in their regions and are essential to the "movement's" structure. Therefore, expelling them from the party does not mean they will leave alone, veiled by a fig leaf, as Bassil would like; rather, they could splinter the party entirely.
Thus, Bassil prepares for the thousand, not the hundred, before taking any step from which there is no return, capable of causing a storm in the movement that is difficult to calm. In this sense, the decision to expel Bou Saab remains a subject of speculation, intended, before the fate of MP Alan Aoun joins the list of those candidates for expulsion.
In detail, it becomes clear that the course of the parliamentary elections has shown, beyond doubt, that the heads of MPs Bou Saab, Aoun, Ibrahim Kanaan, Simon Abi Ramia have been put on the chopping block because they have become a danger to his internal situation after a series of failures committed in his party and political trajectory. Since expelling them from parliament is challenging, Bassil attempted to clip their wings to weaken and encircle them to subject them. After President Aoun exited the Baabda Palace, the area of disagreement widened more as Bassil monopolized, as usual, the presidential file and attempted to impose his view, not based on convincing principles that would maintain the continuity of the party, upon the MPs, while some decided to break ranks, claiming their discontent with the party president's actions. The distinction between the two teams became so pronounced that Bassil was unable to silence or unify them.
For this reason, it is widely believed that the motives prompting Bassil to escalate his internal confrontations from the realm of hushed debates, governed by the principle that "what occurs in the 'movement' stays within the movement," to the square of official decisions governed by the principle "me against my enemies," include:
- A feeling of weakness causing stress for Gibran Bassil, pushing him to rush forward to provoke the deferred clash with the opposing MPs, who do not hesitate to challenge and strike at all elements of his authority and dominance. Meanwhile, he is covering up his project to regain his dignity with a facade of public relations he's conducting with some political figures under the banner of openness, knowing full well that politically speaking, this facade is worth nothing since many of these figures consulted, for example, the head of the "Marada Movement," Sleiman Frangieh, before receiving or visiting Bassil in Batroun. Furthermore, the anticipation of events to open the door for bargaining in the 2026 election carries a touch of delirium, especially since this election will primarily be subject to the presidency of the republic, leading to changes in the political scene and alliances.
- It is short-sighted to believe that Gibran Bassil is in this battle without the muscles of President Michel Aoun. In reality, General Aoun is the one waging it with his well-known strategy: raising demands to their maximum extent and refusing to compromise. This is why the "movement" president refuses to negotiate on the candidacy of Sleiman Frangieh, playing his cards fully, either winning solidly or facing a catastrophic defeat. Also, regarding the internal situation, Aoun and Bassil exert pressure on the dissenting MPs, either to eliminate them and demonize them in front of Aounist bases or to tame them so that they comply.
On the other hand, these MPs now feel that the extent of the mistakes committed by Bassil has become sufficient grounds to turn the tables completely, especially since they have gained more than two years of time if we assume that the decision to "execute" them was issued on the eve of the last parliamentary elections, and now it is time to execute it. Therefore, these MPs believe that moving collectively is the viable option available to escape the noose tightening around their fate. So far, the ball is in Bassil's court regarding the separation of Alan Aoun. If this occurs, it is expected that the dissenting MPs will have their say. But this time, everything that is said in private will be voiced publicly. And the rope continues to tighten.