If the U.S. elections were held today, President Trump would likely win. Even his opponents acknowledge this bitter truth. The latest polls from CNN indicated that 61% consider Biden's presidency a failure, and 48% say it has harmed them personally, compared to 18% who believe it has benefited them.
The question then arises: Why has Trump's popularity unexpectedly surged in recent months? Several reasons contribute to this: Putin, Sinwar, Netanyahu, college students, immigrants, and Biden's misfortune.
Trump criticizes Biden’s administration by claiming that Putin would not have dared to attack Ukraine when he was president, but did so during Biden's "weak" term. However, this assertion is inaccurate and merely electoral maneuvering. President Putin does not time his strategic calculations based on Trump or anyone else. He certainly understands that Biden, a believer in international order and U.S.-European alliances, would not remain silent in response to the invasion of Ukraine. This is indeed what happened in reality; the Western and specifically U.S. support is what has kept Kyiv resilient and pushed back against Moscow. Thus, Biden is not weak, as Trump claims, but the former president is exploiting the chaos to boost his own standing, much like any seasoned politician might do.
It may be correct to say that Putin now thinks Trump’s return would be beneficial for him, as he could strike a deal with Trump and end the war. Therefore, prolonging this conflict benefits Trump, who has declared he would end it in one day, appealing to the average voter and taxpayer who does not understand why they are supporting a country they cannot locate on a map.
The attack on October 7 did not occur because Biden was in the White House. Yahya Sinwar would have carried out this attack regardless of who resided in the White House. Ironically, Hamas leaders and Iranians, who undoubtedly prefer a Democratic government in Washington, might be the reason for the return of a Republican government led by Trump, a figure they do not have much affection for, recalling his boastfulness and long speeches following the death of "martyr of Jerusalem" Qassem Soleimani, as described by Ismail Haniyeh. The Gaza war and the tragedy experienced by its people have reignited Trump's image, as he insists that Hamas would not have been able to launch its attack if it had known that Biden would remain still. However, this claim is also inaccurate; the Biden administration has provided full support to the Israeli government, and whatever disagreements exist with it are not as serious as they now appear on the surface, nor would Trump offer more than what they have provided.
The ongoing war is an electoral loss for Biden and is damaging his reputation. Netanyahu is also aware of this; he knows that extending the war weakens Biden day by day and enhances the chances of Trump’s return, the president he favors.
Student protests on campuses pave the way for Trump’s return to the White House without intending to. The chaos and confrontations that characterized them have instilled fear even among voters who support or sympathize with the Palestinian cause. The last thing these individuals want is for problems to erupt in educational institutions where they send their children, leading to police intervention to break up clashes. The scenes of disorder have been used by Trump and his team, positioning him as the one capable of restoring order both on and off campuses.
Managing the immigration issue is one of the biggest mistakes made by the Biden administration, and it will undoubtedly pay the price in the elections. According to a Bloomberg poll, 6 out of 10 American voters blame the Biden administration for lax immigration policies, with around 7.3 million migrants entering U.S. territory illegally through the southern border. While Biden appears lenient and confused in dealing with waves of migrants, his competitor Trump looks like a confident man capable of preventing them with high walls and robust policies.
Finally, Biden’s misfortune plays a critical role. Although the economy has improved during his term, his approval ratings remain low, and he’s not credited with this improvement. Luck factors into this greatly, as Trump experienced when the COVID-19 pandemic swept through unexpectedly just months before the elections, dismantling all the economic gains he had built over three years. Biden now faces his own moment of bad luck, with significant indicators such as everything happening being interpreted against him, even though his role is limited. Putin has drained him in an unpopular war domestically, Sinwar did not consult him, and Netanyahu is buying time and procrastinating. Biden learned of student protests through screens and, confusingly, while the economy strengthens, his popularity wanes. If significant changes do not occur in the coming months, the chances of his losing the White House are not far off.
We believed that Biden's frequent forgetfulness, stuttering, and gaffes might be the reason for his loss, but it seems these are signs concealing the real reasons that could cause the leader of the world’s strongest country to lose his position.
