Ibrahim Raisi was a compliant and loyal individual towards the regime and the Supreme Leader of the Republic, having passed multiple tests and proven his loyalty and obedience to the orders of the "Wali al-Faqih" without any hesitation.
After the search operation and the announcement of the death of Iranian regime leader Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in the Varzqan area, the regime's officials moved from a state of shock to planning and managing the incident. It seems that after events like the assassination of former Prime Minister Mohammad Javad Bahonar and former President Mohammad Hossein Rajaei over 40 years ago, the Iranian regime has not experienced such a crisis. At a time when the regime's leader Ali Khamenei describes seeing the "ship of the regime sailing smoothly," the sudden death of President Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and several other passengers on the helicopter occurred.
Khamenei and his close circle, including Raisi as part of the players, had worked meticulously to plan their roles after the Supreme Leader's death. They initiated the first step in electing Khamenei's successor by consolidating ruling powers under the control of hardliners three years ago, which prepared the ground for Raisi's presidency at the request and approval of Ali Khamenei.
The position of "Wali al-Faqih" necessitates that Khamenei, who is 82 years old and facing serious health issues related to cancer, must calculate certain priorities for the continuity of the regime and governance according to his preferences. Some indications suggest he intends to resolve the position of "Wali al-Faqih" evenbeforehis death, as he has placed his pawns and supporters in sensitive institutions. Khamenei managed to unify the structure of the Assembly of Experts, while the parliamentary elections produced revolutionary forces loyal to the "Wali al-Faqih." He also worked to remove those not close to him from the Guardian Council and eliminated figures who could obstruct the election of the person he wished to take on the position of "Wali al-Faqih."
Among those who faced Khamenei were former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, former Speaker of Parliament Mehdi Karroubi, former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, former President Hassan Rouhani, and former Speaker Ali Larijani. The Islamic Republic system relies on a first and last-error principle; if someone makes a mistake, they will not find another chance to return. Many former officials who made a single mistake were removed from the scene, including Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mohammad Khatami, Ali Larijani, Sadegh Larijani, Hassan Rouhani, and most notably, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei needed a trusted person to complete the historic mission of appointing a successor after his death.
Who Benefits from the Departure of the Iranian President?
Ibrahim Raisi was a compliant and loyal individual to the regime and the Supreme Leader and had passed multiple tests proving his loyalty and obedience to the orders of "Wali al-Faqih" without any hesitation. Raisi's past reveals that he follows the policies of the regime and the Supreme Leader himself, but the question arises as to why the regime decided to have Raisi head the country during such a sensitive time? They decided this because the Iranian constitution assigns him the task of "leading the leadership" upon the Supreme Leader's death.
The Iranian constitution states clearly, "One of the causes for the establishment of temporary leadership is the Supreme Leader's death, his removal by the Assembly of Experts, or his resignation or incapacity to perform his duties. In such cases, a council is formed that includes the President, the Head of the Judiciary, and one jurist from the Guardian Council chosen by the Expediency Discernment Council, which leads the country. If any of these individuals are unable to perform their duties, the Expediency Discernment Council will appoint someone to replace them... The temporary leadership council performs functions outlined in constitutional articles 1, 3, 5, 10, and sections (d), (e), (f), and (g) as well as clause 6 of Article 110, with the approval of three-quarters of the members of the Expediency Discernment Council. The Iranian constitution does not specify the duration of the leadership guarantee."
As for who is the first in governance, Raisi, according to the Iranian constitution, was qualified to perform the same role that Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani played after the death of the system's founder, Ruhollah Khomeini, by taking on the "leadership management" and playing a key role in presenting Ali Khamenei to the Assembly of Experts to bring him to power to assume the important contemporary historical role in the regime.
I believe that Raisi was not a competitor for any individual to take on the position of "Wali al-Faqih" after Khamenei and was not meant to be assigned that position; rather, he was a loyal figure to the regime who could facilitate all necessary preparations for whoever Khamenei wanted to take that position after him. According to the Iranian constitution, after the Supreme Leader's death, the President becomes the primary individual in governance, overseeing the committee responsible for electing the new leader as well as the meetings of the Guardian Council. Thus, it was natural that Khamenei and his close associates would not allow anyone other than Raisi to hold the presidency at a time when the Supreme Leader is aging and may pass away soon. Raisi was also one of the nominees to lead the Guardian Council, and the council was due to elect its president next month, with Raisi having strong prospects.
What Will the Regime Do?
I see that these measures are underway to prepare for a period in which Khamenei may pass away either naturally or suddenly. However, in such circumstances where Raisi has been killed, what will the regime do in the next 50 days to elect a new president? The Iranian regime faces two challenges after the vacancy of the presidency and the foreign minister. The foreign policy challenges are related to regional issues, neighboring countries, the Gaza War, and the Iranian nuclear program, and the regime is also working to secure its interests and the future of governance.
Considering the international risks faced by the regime after Raisi’s death, it seems that competing political groups will not boycott the elections and will participate in them to maintain their presence since their existence depends on the continuance of the government. However, for the reasons previously mentioned, I doubt that they will entrust the presidency to someone not trusted by the regime’s leader. We cannot exclude the possibility that a committed cleric loyal to Khamenei will announce candidacy in the coming days.
Should the Iranian regime manage to determine the Supreme Leader's successor, there are many speculations regarding the desire of one of Khamenei's sons, particularly Mojtaba Khamenei, to assume the position. The regime might allow the nomination of moderate figures like former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif for the presidency. Mohammad Javad Zarif had prospects for a return to the political scene after the Supreme Leader's successor is determined next year. However, the sudden death of Raisi has created challenges for Khamenei’s operations room. The regime faces an upcoming presidential election with unpredictable outcomes.
Ibrahim Raisi did not come to assume the leadership of the country but to facilitate the process of appointing the future leader. The next president will not work to serve Iran and its people, but rather for the interests of the regime and to fulfill the current Supreme Leader's demands.
