It appears that French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian carried the seeds of failure for his visit even before arriving in Beirut. Internally, there is a consensus that this visit aims to showcase the French role, and that Washington, convinced that there are no solutions in Lebanon until there is calm in Gaza, is the only one holding the key to resolution. The conditional initiative brought by Le Drian effectively pronounced the visit's failure before it even ended, as information suggests that the French envoy began his consultations with the parties based on the idea of a "third option," asserting that there could be no solution unless the officially nominated candidates withdrew from the race. This means he placed a condition on the success of the initiative.
The second point was the emphasis on the idea of bilateral consultation among the forces, which practically absolved him of the concept of dialogue. Le Drian expressed this clearly to Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri during their meeting at Ain el-Tineh, in the presence of French Ambassador to Lebanon, Harvey Maccreau, and to the head of the Loyalty to the Resistance Block, MP Mohammed Radeh, at the block's headquarters in Harat Hreik, alongside the International Relations official, Ammar Moussawi. His meetings also included leaders of the Lebanese Forces party, Samir Geagea, the Kataeb party, Sami Gemayel, and the independent parliamentary bloc that includes the National Moderation Bloc and the New Lebanon Bloc, as well as ambassadors from the Quintet group.
Le Drian received conflicting responses to his initiative. Hezbollah and President Berri confirmed their refusal to abandon support for the nomination of Sleiman Frangieh, the head of the Marada Movement, and insisted on holding a dialogue exclusively chaired by the Speaker. Berri reiterated his commitment to his initiative for electing a president, renewing the call for unconditional consultation on one issue: electing a new president, and then moving to the general assembly of the parliamentary council for voting through successive rounds, within a list that includes several candidates. In contrast, Geagea rejected any dialogue or consultation, stating after his meeting with Le Drian that Le Drian mentioned that Berri was positive, thus Geagea challenged him to call for a session as stated in "Al-Akhbar."
Consequently, Le Drian's visit is treated as a declaration of failure added to previous rounds that have yielded no results since he took on the presidential crisis file. Informed sources stated that the French aimed to give one last chance to the Quintet committee, which had pronounced itself in a statement issued after its last meeting at the US embassy in Awkar, containing a final warning to the Lebanese that they must elect a president or the committee would cease its functions. The duo firmly rejected abandoning support for Frangieh's candidacy and insisted on a dialogue exclusively chaired by the Speaker of the Parliament. The sources added that the French have proven their inability to achieve any progress either on the presidential file or concerning the southern front, noting that during Le Drian's penultimate visit last November, he stated he would return to Lebanon after a month, but he remained absent for more than six months. It is expected that he will declare the suspension of the French initiative in Lebanon upon his departure, coinciding with the Quintet committee freezing its work, awaiting the outcomes of the upcoming meeting in the Élysée between French President Emmanuel Macron and US President Joe Biden at the beginning of next month, according to "Al-Akhbar."
