Lebanese political forces do not seem optimistic about a magical solution to the presidential crisis that French President Emmanuel Macron's envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, might present during his upcoming fifth visit to Beirut on Tuesday. Most have expressed their surprise at the timing of the visit, given that there are no new developments suggesting the possibility of breaking through the wall of the ongoing crisis that has lasted for a year and a half, particularly in light of Hezbollah-led forces' insistence on dialogue and consensus prior to calling for an election session, while the opposing bloc pushes for an immediate open session with consecutive rounds until a president is elected.
**Consensus is Essential**
Member of the Development and Liberation Bloc, MP Ashraf Baydoun, stated that the bloc and Speaker Nabih Berri support any action that serves the presidential entitlement, whether it is external or internal. However, as long as there are political forces unwilling to adopt consensus as a primary and mandatory route before heading to the Parliament, external initiatives remain auxiliary and secondary elements that cannot lead to a resolution, which is strictly in the hands of the Lebanese. Baydoun expressed surprise to Asharq Al-Awsat regarding the opposing team's view that calling for consensus is a constitutional violation, noting that no presidential elections have been achieved since the Taif Agreement without prior understanding.
He added that if they are waiting for external settlements, they will likely come too late, so why not give consensus a chance given the exceptional circumstances the country is going through? If it fails, he asserts, then Parliament can voice its opinion. He believes that what is needed from Le Drian and all those working on the presidential file is to convince the opposing team that consensus is an essential passage for accomplishing the entitlement.
**Major Settlement**
On another note, MP Alain Aoun from the Strong Lebanon Bloc noted that no one expects anything new from Le Drian's visit, as the conditions remain unchanged and nothing substantial has arisen that could break the deadlock. All previous attempts, including those by the Quintet Committee, have stalled, and Aoun speculated that Le Drian's arrival could be part of France reaffirming its role and concern for Lebanon and assessing the current situation.
Aoun does not see the issue as stemming from the multitude of mediators; rather, he considers international competition as a sign of interest in Lebanon. However, he emphasizes that the lack of conditions and elements for a settlement remains tied to a major resolution since the nature of the relationships and equations following the end of the war in Gaza will reflect on Lebanon and its key factions.
**Addiction to Vacuum**
MP Ahmad al-Khair from the National Moderation Bloc views Le Drian's visit, in its timing, as built on the Quintet Committee's recent statement, which confirmed its support for the Moderation Bloc's initiative and aims to work once again on overcoming obstacles it encountered. He spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat about a renewed and appreciated French attempt, in coordination with Lebanon's friends in the Quintet Committee, to help Lebanon emerge from the prevailing state of addiction to vacuum, while urging Lebanese parties to exert the necessary efforts to seize any favorable opportunities to end the presidential vacuum crisis and restore public order.
Al-Khair added that the Moderation Bloc would meet with Le Drian at the Pine Palace on Wednesday to discuss the details of the initiative and any developments from his visit, hoping it would yield positive results in reducing differences and expanding the area of consensus, and based on the visit's outcomes, they will consider the next steps regarding the initiative.
**Naming the Obstructionist Team**
Conversely, sources from the Lebanese Forces believe that Le Drian should name the team obstructing the presidential elections, namely the opposition team, explicitly. This stance was made clear from what was conveyed about Speaker Berri's expressed frustration with the Quintet Committee's recent statement, which outlined a roadmap for achieving the presidential entitlement through limited consultations, implicitly rejecting the dialogue table and calling for sessions with consecutive rounds, hence rejecting Berri's calls for consecutive sessions.
The sources mentioned to Asharq Al-Awsat that they would inform him that the party obstructing the implementation of the mechanisms set by the Quintet is the opposition team, and thus he should declare this plainly and clearly, considering that this team is now exposed, cornered, with no more arguments or justifications, and is moving towards sabotaging international efforts.
