Lebanon is experiencing political confusion, or a struggle over the diplomatic identity it wishes to pursue. This comes amid the failure of French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian's visit to Beirut, which focused on the presidential file, coinciding with Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib's visit to Paris and his meeting with his French counterpart Stéphane Séjourné, aiming to reach an understanding on the French document prepared to address the situation in southern Lebanon. It is noteworthy that Hezbollah had raised numerous objections to that document, as reported by "Al-Jarida" newspaper from Kuwait.
In contrast to this Lebanese dispute over Paris's role, there is a wait to see what the United States will do, especially as it is concerned with mediation through presidential envoy Amos Hochstein to reach an agreement. U.S. President Joe Biden confirmed the country's commitment to work on finding a solution for the Lebanese-Israeli borders. Lebanon remains torn about whether to choose the French or American path, but for France, the course seems to be also stalled from an Israeli perspective, particularly since the French Foreign Ministry announced a few days ago that it had not received a response from Israel regarding the French document.
While Paris has been unsuccessful on the presidential front, sources indicate that based on various recommendations, Lebanon has decided to re-attract the French role in border matters for several reasons, the most important being that France represents a voice in the Security Council and can take supportive stances for Lebanon, despite the reliance on America's role in reaching an agreement. The advice suggests that Paris can be a facilitating and supportive element, to avoid leaving the field solely to Washington, which Lebanese opinion perceives as often accommodating Israeli interests.
In this context, Lebanon has seen discussions that included advice to concerned parties about the need to regain French interest in border matters, especially as Paris refers in its proposal to restoring the 1996 understanding, which legitimized Hezbollah's armed activities under the banner of resistance and established rules of engagement. Hezbollah has received this advice positively, as it wishes to maintain the legitimacy of its armed actions and the rules of engagement.
Meanwhile, Lebanon awaits Hochstein, as the Lebanese conviction still holds that he will head to Lebanon as soon as the war in Gaza ceases, to initiate efforts based on the three-phase proposal he previously submitted, which first involves the return of residents to their homes on both sides of the border, along with strengthening the Lebanese army's capabilities. Second, it proposes an economic package for Lebanon and signing an agreement that definitively delineates the land borders between Lebanon and Israel.
All of this indicates that efforts are frozen pending the war in Gaza. Conversely, the escalation continues between Israel and Hezbollah, which yesterday shot down an Israeli drone of the advanced Hermes 900 type. This escalation could reach a dangerous level, and there may be no capacity to curb it in the future, especially since the Israelis are setting a deadline for repatriating their citizens to the north. Here, diplomatic data reveals that Lebanon recently received a new threat message indicating that Israel will not respond to all pressures to cease targeting Hezbollah and its positions, and if serious concessions are not provided, the course of the war will extend for months.
Part of this information and discussions will be addressed by U.S. Ambassador Lisa Johnson in her testimony before Congress, and it will also be discussed by Army Commander Joseph Aoun, who is expected to visit the U.S. capital soon, according to "Al-Jarida."
