Information from Washington has revealed that the U.S. administration is actively working to contain the escalation on the southern front, fearing that the confrontations could spiral into a war involving Iran and its affiliated militias in the region. According to "Nidaa Al-Watan," the United States has indirectly requested Hezbollah to engage in mediation efforts with Hamas to reach an agreement that would halt the Gaza war, thus stopping confrontations between Israel and the party.
According to this information, U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein suggested during a call with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri that he convey a request to Hezbollah to intensify its efforts with Hamas alongside ongoing efforts with Israel to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza. Hochstein justified his unprecedented request by aligning it with Hezbollah’s position to link the southern front with Gaza; if the current efforts to stop the war in the Palestinian territory succeed, it would automatically lead to a cessation of confrontations in the south.
Berri reportedly received a response from Hezbollah that included a refusal to carry out this mediation due to considerations conveyed to the envoy. Concurrently, the Biden administration has cautioned Israel in recent weeks against the idea of a limited war in Lebanon, fearing that it might provoke Iranian intervention, according to two American officials and one Israeli official speaking to Axios news site.
U.S. and Israeli officials have expressed growing concern in the Israeli military and defense ministry that the situation in Lebanon is approaching a turning point. The United States and France are attempting to find a diplomatic solution to reduce tensions along the border but have not made progress yet. American officials have informed Axios that the Biden administration told Israel it does not believe that a limited war in Lebanon or a small regional conflict is a realistic option because it would be difficult to contain and prevent escalation.
Israel has warned that a ground invasion of Lebanon, even if limited to areas close to the border, is likely to provoke Iranian intervention. One scenario raised by Washington with Israel suggests that Lebanon could become overwhelmed with fighters from Iranian-affiliated militias in Syria, Iraq, and even Yemen who would wish to join the fight.
Meanwhile, an Israeli official told Axios that no decisions were made in the recent Israeli cabinet meeting, but the Israeli army has presented several options for expanding the conflict, including a ground invasion aimed at pushing Hezbollah's Radwan forces away from the border.
He emphasized that since October 7, the directive from Israeli political leaders to the army has been to focus on defeating Hamas in Gaza while avoiding war in Lebanon. The official noted that changing this policy could have far-reaching consequences, stating that a war with Hezbollah or a limited operation in Lebanon would have significant implications for Israel and would likely lead to a similar agreement to the one currently sought between Israel and Gaza, after costing lives and draining resources. He stated, "We need to understand this before making decisions," according to "Nidaa Al-Watan."
