A new initiative was introduced by the Progressive Socialist Party yesterday, titled a session of dialogue or consultation chaired by the Speaker of the House, preceding the presidential election session. This initiative will coincide with a similar one that the Free Patriotic Movement is preparing, led by its chief, Gibran Basil, who is set to meet with party leaders to reopen discussions on the presidency. The goal of both attempts is to present internal initiatives above external endeavors to avoid further crises and prepare for potential military developments, alongside the upcoming French-American summit and the possibility of negotiations between Israel and Hamas to stop the war in Gaza, as reported by "Nidaa Al-Watan."
At every critical juncture where former Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblatt senses danger, he mobilizes his party's parliamentary bloc and initiates a movement aimed at encouraging dialogue and consultation to fulfill constitutional obligations, foremost among them the presidential election, and to navigate the delicate phase that Lebanon is experiencing amidst the Israeli aggression on Gaza and Lebanon. Several delegations yesterday held meetings with Speaker of the House Nabih Berri, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, and the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gibran Basil.
The Socialist Party is trying to gauge the sentiment regarding opening a dialogue among parliamentary blocs in anticipation of the presidential election session. Its initiative aims to support the Speaker in leading a dialogue that could result in an agreement on the election of a president. In his latest interview, Jumblatt showed a significant shift in his stance towards Hezbollah, supporting an open front and aligning with Berri on his presidential outlook. The Socialist Party's initiative follows the visit of French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian and comes just before the French-American summit and the movement of envoys regarding Lebanon, with warnings of a potential explosion in the south.
The Socialist Party does not wish to provoke Hezbollah and has become more aligned with the duo in its political approach. Hezbollah, which has embraced any initiative and reiterated through its Secretary-General, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the separation of the presidency from the Gaza situation, does not oppose opening dialogue but insists on its candidate, Sleiman Frangieh. Its focus is on the front and readiness to repel any potential Israeli aggression against Lebanon, while implicitly believing that the conditions for a presidential election are not mature, even though it is prepared to separate the election from Gaza.
Hezbollah understands that the region is undergoing a difficult period and that the French-American summit may yield decisive decisions regarding the war in Gaza. While awaiting the outcomes of that summit, any internal movement is hoped to converge on a position that eases tensions and ensures solidarity against any potential Israeli aggression.
Political sources are skeptical about the possibility of the Socialist Party's initiative succeeding. Although numerous internal initiatives stir the stagnation, they do not lead to the desired outcomes, as evidenced by the National Moderation Bloc's initiative that yielded no results, and the efforts of the five-member committee that toured party leaders and returned empty-handed, save for wishes to elect a president. Even more disheartening was the French envoy's remark that failing to elect a president could lead to the end of political Lebanon.
Since the onset of Israel's war on Gaza and Hezbollah's support efforts from the south, threats regarding the repercussions of presidential vacancy have been recurrent, but these threats have not prompted Hezbollah to retreat or change its stance on the presidency. All movement is weighed against Hezbollah's positions which are determined by the south front and within Gaza, alongside the settlement that is beginning to take shape on the horizon, though its details remain unclear.
The Socialist Party carried ideas about dialogue to promote. Some proposals received positive responses, while others were met with reservations. Geagea completely rejected the call for dialogue, as well as any discussion of Berri's role, leading to discontent among the Socialists. Conversely, the Free Patriotic Movement did not oppose a dialogue under Berri's leadership, provided there was some form of guarantee that the dialogue would culminate in the election of a president. There was an agreement between the Socialist Party and the Movement that both parties would pursue their respective efforts, with Basil set to tour the officials and party leaders next week for the same objective, while maintaining discussions to facilitate a consultation session that includes the Lebanese Forces, as it would be impossible to have any dialogue without the participation of such a significant political component.
The Socialist Party concluded that day of consultation without high hopes for success, having sensed the existence of obstacles, objections, and vetoes on the principle of dialogue or consultation, even if that leads to scheduling a session for the presidential election. The journey of initiatives has not ended yet. The Socialist Party will continue, and the Free Patriotic Movement will begin its discussions in this direction. These attempts are seen as a means to buy time while awaiting clarity and preparing to respond to developments as the stakes of the war compete with the probabilities of calm, according to "Nidaa Al-Watan."
