The current Israeli government led by Benjamin Netanyahu has characteristics that make it unlikely to collapse easily. The government currently holds 64 seats in the Knesset, providing it with a slim majority out of 120 members. This has led to speculation that Benny Gantz may seek to sway some members to his side to end this majority, withdraw confidence from Netanyahu, and call for early elections.
**Gantz's Justification**
On Sunday, Minister Gantz announced his resignation from the war cabinet, thereby removing the only power from the centrist bloc in the right-wing coalition led by Netanyahu. In a press conference, Gantz stated, "We are withdrawing from this government because Netanyahu is preventing us from making progress towards true victory in the war." Regarding his future endeavors, he mentioned that he will return to the opposition and support any responsible decision, calling for early elections, saying, "Elections must be held that ultimately lead to the formation of a government that has the trust of the people."
Netanyahu had urged Gantz on Sunday not to "withdraw from the battle," writing on the platform "X": "Benny, now is not the time to withdraw from the battle; it is time to unite our forces." Meanwhile, opposition leader Yair Lapid welcomed Gantz's resignation, stating, "It is time to replace this extreme government with a rational government that will restore security to the citizens of Israel and bring back the captives."
**Future of the War Cabinet**
Regarding the future of the government following Gantz's move, Israeli politician and former deputy mayor of Nazareth, Dr. Suhail Diab, told Sky News Arabia that Netanyahu might opt to dissolve the smaller war cabinet while the current government continues its operations. Diab attributed his expectation of dissolving the war cabinet to Netanyahu trying to reach out to Avigdor Liberman and Gideon Sa'ar to join the war cabinet in anticipation of Gantz’s departure, but he failed to secure an agreement with them.
The war cabinet was established after Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, aimed at "managing the war," yet it witnessed disputes among its members due to differing opinions on the difficulty of achieving war objectives and the government's post-war plan. Regarding Gantz's upcoming moves, Diab indicated that "there are talks about communications between him and factions within the Likud party to overthrow Netanyahu in the Knesset, which is possible, and Defense Minister Yoav Galant's position will be crucial."
Diab also does not rule out a scenario where Gantz follows through on his statement to return to the opposition and may lead actions to demand the government's resignation through coordination with economic entities and professional unions.
On the impact of these developments on the course of the Gaza war, Diab predicted that Netanyahu might pursue a partial deal with Hamas, blaming Gantz for evading responsibility at a sensitive time for the state. However, the continuation of this deal would depend on its effects on poll ratings; if Netanyahu finds his popularity rising with the prospect of early elections, he would finalize the deal, but if he senses a decline, he may return to warfare.
Professor of political science at Bar-Ilan University, Mordechai Kedar, believes the government has a majority in the Knesset that ensures its continuation. Regarding the discussions about Gantz coordinating with disgruntled Likud members to overthrow Netanyahu, Kedar stated that such claims are "a psychological war that Gantz is waging on Likud members who might lean toward this position, but they will not act on it."
Kedar explained that Likud members in the Knesset "cannot stray from the party line, or they risk finding themselves off the party lists in the next elections, which would end their political careers." He sees the law on conscription, which would force Haredi Jews (a religious sect that has refused conscription since Israel's founding in 1948) to serve in the army, as a potential threat to the government's cohesion. As long as the conscription law is not up for discussion in the Knesset, this government will remain stable; however, if the Supreme Court approves the law, it could open the door to significant internal conflict within the government.
At the same time, Kedar acknowledges that Israeli society as a whole "is experiencing a profound division—those who support Netanyahu will remain with him regardless, and those who oppose him will not accept any of his positions." He attributed Gantz's resignation to "being sidelined in the war cabinet, becoming less informed about many developments; perhaps his presence was important initially, but it is no longer, alongside a recent decline in support for him being one of the reasons for his withdrawal."
