Although serious and genuine hopes were not primarily pinned on the phenomenon of intensified mediations and their interconnections, especially those related to the presidential vacancy crisis, this did not overshadow the remarkable speed at which the futility of these movements became clear. This futility has only expedited the revelation of the profound disparities and complexities that continue to dominate this crisis, now one year and eight months old.
What can be derived from recent movements and their facts, particularly following the participation of the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gebran Bassil, in these movements in the last two days, can be summarized in the following key points as reported by "An-Nahar":
Firstly, the equation of strictness in the intense conflict between the opposition forces and the Shiite duo resurfaced strongly concerning the issue of consultation or dialogue. The insistence of Speaker Nabih Berri on his condition to chair any consultation session publicly and officially served as an escalatory message, which quickly led to negative outcomes that did not only affect the Lebanese Forces, who oppose any consultation or dialogue chaired by Berri, which would establish a framework that contradicts the constitution. It became evident that the opposition forces collectively informed Gebran Bassil last night that they do not accept consultations or dialogue presided over by Berri, as it concedes to an unconstitutional condition. This marks a new development in the failure of the resistant forces’ attempts to manipulate the differentiation in the stances between the Lebanese Forces and other opposition forces, thus reverting this issue back to square one.
Secondly, the debates that emerged between the leader of the Marada Movement, Sleiman Frangieh, and MP Bassil reinforced the prevailing impressions regarding the almost impossibility of reaching any consensus around a consensual mechanism that Bassil himself, as well as other mediators like the Progressive Socialist Party, are seeking. This debate quickly transformed into a fiery campaign launched by Bassil in response to his staunch opponents, Frangieh and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, whom he described as equally miscalculating.
Thirdly, these internal movements raise a series of questions about whether their incentive is merely to fill the idle time while awaiting the fate of the French and Qatari mediations. Meanwhile, attention will soon be directed towards a visit by Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Secretary of State at the Vatican, to Lebanon starting on the 23rd of this month and what it might carry, especially since Parolin recently met with French presidential envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian in the Vatican specifically for this purpose prior to his visit to Lebanon.
In terms of significant recent developments, Bassil continued his campaign, which he started last Sunday in Bakirköy, with a meeting with Speaker Berri in Ain al-Tineh, where he announced that they had discussed the necessary legislations and the importance of discussing them while confirming that the presidential file should not be linked to developments in the south and the region. He emphasized that success in electing a president is contingent upon agreement. Hence the idea of consultation or dialogue to reach a consensus candidate was proposed. He added, "I am not carrying an initiative; this is not my duty, but it is our responsibility to seek opportunities, however small, to ensure the constitutional entitlement." Responding to Frangieh, Bassil stated, "Anyone who wishes to present themselves as president, or Samir Geagea of the Lebanese Forces, must know how to calculate correctly and understand who is first. We were one entity that didn't know how to count, and now we are two."
In the evening, a delegation from the Strong Lebanon bloc, headed by Bassil, visited the Kataeb party's central office in Sassine and met with the party leader, MP Samy Gemayel, along with a delegation from the opposition that included MP Ghassan Hasbani. A source revealed that the opposition would inform Bassil that they would not accept any dialogue chaired by Berri, and their position will remain firm in rejecting this matter. After the meeting, Bassil limited his comments in response to a question about whether he had convinced the opposition or if his MPs had convinced him by saying, "We'll see."
It was reported that Bassil proposed two directions to the opposition deputies: either to go for consultations together and extract guarantees from Berri for consecutive sessions, or to agree on confrontation using various political, media, and expressive means, asserting that rejecting both directions means maintaining the status quo as dictated by the Shiite duo.
The Coordination Committee of the opposition deputies issued a statement confirming that the opposition forces reiterated their openness to limited-time consultations, as currently happening, free from any establishment of new norms that violate constitutional principles and unconditioned in any form, particularly regarding imposing the name of a specific candidate, insisting that the other side should agree to open the doors of the Parliament for an open election session for the presidency with the commitment of all blocs' attendance, in compliance with Article 74 of the constitution, which stipulates that the Parliament convenes by law for this purpose.
In this context, reports indicated that Berri insists that any election of a president must be preceded by a dialogue chaired by him, with some sources from Ain al-Tineh stating that "some say that they will not participate in a dialogue chaired by Berri, which is an embarrassing statement." Conversely, Lebanese Forces sources stated that if Berri insists, he should call for dialogue with whoever wishes to participate, but they would not register that on themselves nor accept guarantees that establish norms contrary to the constitution, asserting that the only guarantee is adherence to the constitution.
The Lebanese Forces responded to Berri's statement that "consultation is the mandatory passage to achieve the presidential entitlement, and it must happen first, second, and third," emphasizing that the consultation Berri refers to, held at a dialogue table chaired by him, is not mandatory, as there is no constitutional text making consultation a mandatory passage. They confirmed that discussions regarding the presidential entitlement have been ongoing since before the presidential vacuum, but this consultation has faced obstacles due to the obstruction of electoral sessions on one hand and the insistence on a single candidate on the other, despite the inability to elect them. They stated that the way to break the cycle of the presidential election is simple: Berri should call for an electoral session held in consecutive rounds until a president is elected, and Berri's deputies and the resistant blocks must commit to participating in all rounds and abandon the obstructive approach.
For its part, the Progressive Socialist Party continued its tour of political forces, meeting with a delegation from the Democratic Gathering led by MP Taymour Jumblatt. The meeting included the leader of the Kataeb Party, MP Samy Gemayel, who confirmed his readiness to bypass formalities as long as they do not violate the constitution. He asked, "Is there a substantive guarantee ensuring the withdrawal of Marada leader Sleiman Frangieh and looking into other names? If consensus fails, will we go to an electoral session and abide by the constitution?" He stressed that they are not prepared to pay the price of Frangieh's withdrawal before starting to talk about the next president, adding that if imposing Frangieh is the goal, they are not inclined to follow that path, indicating that they are not willing to give in. In response to Frangieh, Gemayel proposed that the four leaders withdraw from the contest instead of running, clarifying that the four of them are partners, and they cannot elect a president who is also a partner, according to "An-Nahar."
