From one movement to another, the presidential file shifts, yet the path to resolution is singular: an agreement on elections. The attempts made by parliamentary blocs—from the National Moderation bloc to the Democratic Gathering and the Free Patriotic Movement—are intertwined, albeit each bloc has its own understanding or method of presenting its initiative. In reality, these attempts go around in circles, facing common demands. Some blocs strive to inject new ideas into the efforts of others or seek to organize their content, altering terms or phrases, using more palatable or appealing language. However, the substance remains the same: consultation or dialogue, etc., but the mandatory passage goes through the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri.
The scene has not changed for months, from the Moderation bloc's movement and the five-member committee to the visit of former minister Jean-Yves Le Drian until today with the movements from the Democratic Gathering and the Free Patriotic Movement. The bet on accumulating positives has failed; some who have worked on the presidential front have taken a step back, while others have decided to make another attempt. It is noteworthy that chance does not apply to the presidential file, with communications yielding no suggestions to clear the path ahead. There are those who acknowledge that it would have been better to consolidate efforts earlier without waiting or entangling other blocs in various undertakings, especially since the answers remain identical.
After the press conference held by the head of the Strong Lebanon bloc, MP Gebran Bassil, MP Taymour Jumblatt of the Democratic Gathering is preparing for a similar conference to summarize the discussions. Following these, there will be an exploration of the next phase or an intensification of a specific effort, or stagnation, particularly since the presidency is postponed.
Sources involved with the presidential file indicate to "Al-Liwaa" that no final decision has been made regarding participation in consultations, and matters continue to revolve in the same futile cycle. What was said to the Moderation bloc was also communicated to the Socialist bloc and the Free Patriotic Movement, with no new vision or discussions taking place without the leadership of President Berri; otherwise, they become incomplete as announced by the Shiite duo, as well as talks with specific conditions imposed, such as insisting on a particular personality for the presidency. If there is any agreement on consultations preceding the elections, it will not be implemented, indicating that neither the Socialist movement nor the Free Patriotic Movement, which has been enthusiastic about dialogue, can make a breakthrough.
The same sources assert that no new contributions have emerged within the two movements, making them distinct from the initiative of the National Moderation bloc, which some have deemed clearer and presented by the five-member committee, even the Lebanese Forces bloc did not withhold support for it, unlike several other blocs. They note that the timing of the two movements raises questions about whether they relate to fears of war. The Democratic Gathering has moved at the behest of French-Qatari influence, while questions arise regarding who has prompted MP Gebran Bassil to show enthusiasm in a movement that he knows full well does not align with the current presidential standoff. The purpose of this step may reveal itself soon, knowing that those close to him affirm that the bloc has been proactive in proposing solutions and does not aim to exclude anyone or dismiss any initiative, calling for a consensus president like others.
The sources added that there is a possibility for the National Moderation bloc to restart its engines, as long as the attempts are aligned with the idea conveyed to all parties. They emphasize that although the presidential movement has occupied the local scene, the presidential atmosphere remains unstable—meaning no imminent presidency. Regarding the integration of the Socialist and Free Patriotic movements with the Moderation bloc and the merging of proposals, the sources do not confirm this, knowing that proponents of this movement have paused at its initiative.
In this context, MP Saji Atieh from the National Moderation bloc affirms to “Al-Liwaa” that the bloc supports any initiative aimed at resolving issues, emphasizing complementary efforts with initiatives, while also highlighting the importance of genuine intentions. He states that Lebanon deserves unified stances directed towards completing the presidential elections, clarifying that it is crucial to have a president for participation in future negotiations, particularly after the Gaza war. He expressed gratitude to Dr. Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces' executive committee, for agreeing to the Moderation bloc's initiative.
It is not difficult for a presidential movement to emerge from any bloc; the challenge lies in bringing the presidential entitlement to safety, as it has become evident from reality that softening stances is far from achievable.
