As soon as the announcement was made regarding the visit of U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein to Israel to discuss reducing confrontations with Hezbollah and renewing efforts for a ceasefire, the intensity of confrontations in the south waned. For three days, the level of operations decreased, specifically following airstrikes targeting a house in the town of Jinata. Amid the escalation and the series of Israeli threats, international and diplomatic communications intensified behind the scenes to prevent an explosion or widespread confrontation, as reported by "Al-Mudun."
Everyone is waiting to see what Hochstein will bring, but without excessive confidence in the possibility of achieving quick understandings that could help solve the problem. The ambition lies in tactical agreements aimed at avoiding a broader conflict. It has become clear that the closer the front comes to explosion, a hidden hand works to rein it in and return it to controls and rules of engagement that prevent the widening of confrontation or its transformation into a large-scale war. More than four times, confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel have almost exploded, characterized by significant escalation and intensification of operations. One might have thought that the moment of war had approached until many factors intermingled to diffuse the situation, as if everyone were adhering to controls against being dragged into war.
Hezbollah essentially does not want a war and maintains Lebanon as just a support front. As for Israel, there is a clear hesitation on the part of the government and the military, despite conflicting Israeli statements and the raising of threats, hinting at the imminent launching of a large military operation.
Alongside all the escalation positions and threats from Israeli officials, they conclude their statements with political or diplomatic options. This is undoubtedly coupled with a lack of a clear vision for any war that Tel Aviv might wage in Lebanon or its seemingly unattainable objectives, especially in light of announcements about pushing Hezbollah back to north of the Litani River or delivering a strong blow to its military capabilities, particularly its advanced weaponry.
There is confirmation that there is no clear vision among the Israelis regarding the objectives of a potential war and how to achieve them. This undoubtedly creates a compounded Israeli dilemma, as Tel Aviv will find itself embarrassed between the choice of escalation, the outcomes of which it does not understand, and the potential losses Hezbollah might inflict on it, particularly in light of discussions about ballistic missiles and long-range missiles exceeding 80 km with a high destructive capacity.
In light of all these realities, it is clear that Israel is in a strategic quandary regarding how to deal with the Lebanese front. It refuses any formula for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip so as not to emerge as a loser; this also applies to Lebanon. Israelis talk about the impossibility of agreeing to return to the situation before October 7, but without a clear practical vision for that. This will create a significant rift within Israeli society, in the absence of any guaranteeing party capable of achieving what Tel Aviv seeks. This will be one of the main items in Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's visit to Washington, where he will discuss the status of the front with Lebanon and request more weapons from the Americans.
Considering the ability to curb escalation, the option of a large-scale war remains unlikely… unless Israel deviates from all established controls. In that case, it cannot be predicted how long the war will last or its trajectory. On the other hand, any prospect for a political or diplomatic solution does not appear evident, given the unclear vision and Hezbollah's firm stance alongside the Israelis' insistence on not returning to the situation before October 7. Hezbollah proposes a return to the conditions before the Al-Aqsa flood and insists on adhering to a ceasefire as soon as it is halted in Gaza. However, this will pose a problem for Israel's government and military with the populations of the northern settlements, who will reject a return amid ongoing fears of Hezbollah launching an attack similar to the October 7 assault in Gaza.
It is the Israeli dilemma without any prospect, which could prolong the war of attrition, as well as the efforts being made, in awaiting a regional miracle that contributes to changing realities or establishing larger understandings, whose reflection is stronger than the ability to avoid it, according to "Al-Mudun."
