American sources have revealed a general agreement between Israel and Hamas on the terms outlined in the first phase, but they are at odds over how to officially end the war, according to Politico. Despite initial optimism about the deal, officials now believe that these disagreements could jeopardize the entire agreement. One official stated that the second phase is the "sticking point." Hamas wants Israel to agree to a complete withdrawal from Gaza, but Israeli officials said they would not agree to a complete withdrawal from the enclave until its forces fully dismantle Hamas, a goal that may take months, if not years, to achieve.
Hamas will not sign any part of the deal, including the initial ceasefire, until Israel agrees to its demands. In fact, Hamas has issued an ultimatum of "everything or nothing," and it is unlikely that Israel will agree to this. Neither side has shown signs of willingness to compromise, raising concerns among officials in President Joe Biden's administration that fighting could continue for several more months. One official said, "I think this will continue until the end of 2024 at least." Biden administration officials doubt that Israel and Hamas will reach a comprehensive ceasefire agreement under the current framework, according to four American officials familiar with the negotiations, as reported by Politico.
The agreement, if approved, is supposed to occur in three phases. The first phase involves a ceasefire for six weeks, allowing Israeli forces to withdraw from populated areas in Gaza, the release of hostages, and the release of Palestinian prisoners. In the second phase, Israel and Hamas are supposed to negotiate an end to all hostilities and the release of remaining hostages, while the reconstruction of Gaza will take place in the third phase.
The situation has frustrated humanitarian organizations, many of which have informed the administration about the current state of negotiations, stating that they cannot effectively assist the people of Gaza without stopping the fighting. A ceasefire is considered the only way to ensure that those on the ground receive much-needed food and medical assistance. A representative from a major relief organization operating in Gaza said, "The administration is pushing both Israel and Hamas hard to agree to the deal, but everything seems to be hanging in the balance at the moment."
Since the beginning of the year, senior American officials have grown increasingly skeptical about finding a way to quickly end the war. The goal has been to convince Israel and Hamas at least to agree to an initial six-week ceasefire that could allow for the release of dozens of hostages held by the militant group following the October 7 attack on Israel and to establish better conditions for aid distribution in Gaza, preventing potential famine.
American officials estimate that even if Hamas and Israel reach a short-term preliminary ceasefire agreement, there is a high likelihood that this agreement will collapse. Ceasefires in Gaza have a history of breaking down during the war, and both sides are firm on their terms to end the war under the second phase of the deal. The Biden administration has spent the past few weeks attempting to mediate an agreement between Israel and Hamas. Senior officials have traveled to Israel and Doha in an effort to find a solution, and they are now publicly blaming Hamas for creating obstacles to peace.
Hamas has proposed amendments to the three-phase agreement, and American officials said some of these amendments are likely to be acceptable, while others are not. Officials did not clarify what exactly Israel has agreed to and how Hamas wants to alter the details of the proposal currently on the table. However, officials are not optimistic that the two sides will be able to resolve their differences quickly. One official, informed by the White House on the status of the ceasefire negotiations, stated, "No one is confident that this agreement will move forward the way the administration had hoped, and there are many unknowns."
