The diplomatic movement in the country, starting from the visit of the American envoy Amos Hochstein, passing through the visit of the Vatican Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, to the visit from German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and the Assistant Secretary-General of the Arab League, Ambassador Hossam Zaki, suggests that there is an intense effort being made to prevent the situation from slipping into war. However, some of these meetings did not focus on a comprehensive discussion regarding how to stop the escalating tension on the southern front and prevent the war from widening, as reported in "Al-Liwaa".
These visits will not be the only ones aimed at sparing Lebanon from a comprehensive war; there are preparations for visits from other officials, and the American envoy is awaiting new signals from both parties before determining his next step. The race between war and calm remains unchanged, as both sides of the conflict do not disclose their plans, and their positions at the same time imply a lack of retreat, even as some appear to advocate for allowing room for a solution.
The question recurs: when will the war ignite, how will Western warnings regarding the situation in Lebanon be translated, and what about the fate of communications to avoid the worst-case scenario? The data have not indicated any decisive negative or positive decisions, and analysts suggest that the war in the south has entered a state of ebb and flow, with every moment indicating either a progression towards war or diplomatic efforts.
Officially, Foreign Minister and Emigrants Minister Abdullah Bou Habib has been tasked with making communications during his foreign tour as part of the efforts to spare Lebanon from war. Who is capable of controlling the situation and keeping the specter of war at bay? According to informed political sources, international warnings regarding the looming threat of war are expected to continue, and the positions of countries on this issue will not be isolated from one another since there are no definitive predictions regarding the advancement of diplomatic initiatives after linking the fates of Gaza and the south.
It is declared that the time has not yet come to discuss the complete failure of this movement, while at the same time no one can predict the timing of any major Israeli aggression against Lebanon. It is noted that high-level Arab communications have been received by Lebanese officials to bolster the Lebanese stance and provide room for any middle-ground solution that distances Lebanon from the prospect of war, especially as the Israeli enemy continues to threaten Lebanon and will not hesitate to execute its plans, being prepared to do so at its perceived appropriate time.
It is stated that an expanded diplomatic movement towards Lebanon would indicate that the danger is imminent, while the field realities remain within a framework of actions and reactions, with escalation being dominant. The Americans still maintain their decision not to prefer an expansion of the war, and a round of visits by the American ambassador is expected to follow Hochstein's visit. The French, for their part, have returned to reiterate warnings about the dangerous situation, and were it not for distractions with some domestic French files, a French delegation would have been present in Beirut, although this visit is not ruled out.
Regarding the visit of the Vatican official, sources indicate that conducting it at this specific time reaffirmed the Vatican's role in maintaining Lebanon's message-bearing role, with no new mission being assigned. Any proposals to engage in the presidential crisis or south war remain within the realm of predictions or information. It is announced that situations "drag" each other, and if diplomatic efforts or any international movement fail, it means opening avenues wide for confrontation.
Lebanon is expected to become a hub for a series of diplomatic visits focused on one goal: how to prevent war, which is a top priority, especially amid warnings from here and messages of reassurance from there, according to "Al-Liwaa".
