Amid increasing Israeli statements regarding the war in Lebanon, Hezbollah retreats behind propaganda campaigns, without comments from its leaders who are facing ongoing elimination, throughout the nine months of the Israeli war in Gaza. Those who wish to be preoccupied with the "propagandistic noise" can do so, but the facts on the ground are clear and stark, politically and militarily, from Iran to the United States, through Lebanon and Israel, as well as the situations in Gaza.
Since the electoral debate between President Biden and former President Trump, in which Biden has notably failed, the Democratic Party has found itself in an internal American dilemma, leading some to read the events in our region with caution, including Iran and Israel. Iran is wary of the escalation from Israel and does not want a war now, nor does it have the capability for one, as evidenced by the statements of Revolutionary Guard leaders about "their restrained hands."
On the other hand, Netanyahu interprets the debate's outcome and the Supreme Court's decision granting immunity to Trump as having a potential partner for the White House, which will temporarily relieve him from the pressure of the Biden administration. The American administration, like Iran, does not want a war in Lebanon at the moment, even though it has repeatedly declared support through various means, including directing warships to the Mediterranean, because the Biden administration does not want a new campaign like the one it faced when it halted some arms to Israel during the Gaza conflict.
Therefore, amidst all this, Hezbollah resorts to tricks and propaganda, while Israel wants it to withdraw behind the Litani River and ensure the return of its border residents (around sixty thousand) to their areas before winter and the return of schools. For Netanyahu, the story is not about citizens or humanitarian issues; it is about restoring deterrence after October 7 and prolonging the war to sustain his political life, something Biden is aware of, as he mentioned in an interview with Time magazine before backtracking.
Netanyahu also wants to affirm his internal leadership, waiting for Trump’s return to the White House to find a political and military ally against the Iranian nuclear project. This is the picture, and it is clearer now. The question is: Does Hezbollah want to achieve "media victories," or does it want to confront the realities that could have severe consequences on Lebanon due to the Israeli war, which, if it occurs, will be dire? The situation in Gaza is already enough of a warning.
The truth is that Hezbollah will withdraw from the border, and the area of withdrawal is not significant now; it will concede through negotiation or force. Anything other than that is just propaganda lacking in value. It is true that no one wants war, neither Washington nor Tehran, but the reality is that no one is willing to concede to Hezbollah.
Importantly, on the Arab front, no party should seek to save the face of a party that has not prioritized the Lebanese state, amidst the muddled statements about the nature of a party that we all know is a terrorist organization, regardless of how "some" might try to manipulate that fact. The ball is now in Hezbollah's court, and it will concede through negotiation or force; anything else is merely a propaganda attempt to achieve a media victory reminiscent of claims of "divine victory" and "pure money," among other deceitful slogans of the party.
