Polls show that the second round of parliamentary elections to be held today, Sunday, in France could lead to a hung parliament without a clear majority, unless the far right wins enough seats to form its first government since World War II. Here are some facts about the elections and what will follow.
### How Does the Voting Process Work?
The elections are contested in 577 constituencies, with each constituency having a seat in the National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament. In the first round of elections held last Sunday, 76 lawmakers were elected, of whom 39 belong to the National Rally party and its allies, leaving 501 seats available for competition in the second round. Voting today ends at 6 PM (4:00 PM GMT) in small towns and cities, while in major cities, it ends at 8 PM (6:00 PM GMT). At 8 PM, preliminary forecasts based on results from some polling stations will be released, which are usually reliable. The counting of votes is generally quick; however, if the results are close, such as the National Rally being just a few seats away from securing an absolute majority, the announcement of the final result might be delayed until the early hours of Monday.
### Who Will Win?
The National Rally led the first round with one-third of the total votes. While polls expect it to win more seats than any other party, its margin of victory has narrowed after competing parties united to challenge it. The National Rally is likely not to achieve an absolute majority. The left-wing New Popular Front and a coalition of centrist parties supporting President Emmanuel Macron withdrew over 200 candidates from the second round to strengthen the chances of prominent candidates competing against the National Rally in their constituencies. Historically, increasing division tends to favor the right, but recent polls conducted after candidate withdrawals indicate that the most likely scenario is a hung parliament, with the far right failing to secure an absolute majority. This result would lead to significant political uncertainty.
### What Will Happen Next?
A key issue is whether voters will support the candidate running against the National Rally in their constituency, or abstain from voting or support the far right despite recommendations from their candidates to do otherwise. The National Rally and its allies need to win around 289 seats to guarantee an absolute majority and implement their anti-immigration and EU-skeptic agenda. The party has stated that its president, Jordan Bardella, will be its candidate for Prime Minister. In this case, Gabriel Attal, Macron’s Prime Minister, would have to resign immediately. Macron would then appoint a new Prime Minister tasked with forming the government, and he has the right to veto the nomination if he sees the person as unsuitable for the position. The National Rally has outlined its stance on what it will do if it narrowly fails to achieve an absolute majority. Bardella stated he would not lead an unstable minority government, but party leader Marine Le Pen opened the door for other legislators should the party need a few more seats.
### What If the Result Leads to a Hung Parliament?
Meanwhile, Attal noted that parties from the right, left, and center could form specific alliances to vote on individual legislation in the new parliament instead of trying to form a coalition government. However, some in left-leaning parties are promoting the idea of forming a ruling coalition. Unlike Germany and many other European countries, France has never experienced the formation of a broad coalition government throughout its modern political history. Either scenario is likely to lead to political uncertainty and slow down reforms.
### What Happens If There Is No Agreement?
It is also possible that none of the three groups—the far right, center, and left—are large enough to govern alone or reach a coalition agreement or provide assurances that they can manage a sustainable minority government. In such a case, France could experience political paralysis, where little or no legislation is passed, with a caretaker government managing essential daily affairs like a government in office.
### Can Macron Resign?
Macron has ruled this out, but it could become an option if all choices reach a deadlock. Neither Parliament nor the government can force him to resign.
### What Will Not Happen Under Any Scenario?
The constitution stipulates that no new parliamentary elections can be held for another year, so an immediate re-vote is not an option.
