The New Popular Front coalition in France has won the largest number of seats in the second round of parliamentary elections, with estimates suggesting the left-wing coalition, which includes the far left, socialists, greens, and communists, will secure between 172 and 215 seats out of 577. According to preliminary estimates, President Emmanuel Macron's centrist coalition is expected to come in second, with a slight margin, winning between 150 and 180 seats. Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen's National Rally party is projected to win between 115 and 155 seats.
What will happen now?
- The New Popular Front coalition may be on its way to becoming the largest force in the French parliament, but the alliance is still far from the 289 deputies required for an absolute majority.
- As reported by The Guardian, analysts expect that, in the absence of a majority, the left-wing block will have to negotiate.
- The French constitution allows the president to choose whomever they want as prime minister.
- Practically speaking, since the parliament can force the government to resign, the head of state usually chooses someone who is acceptable to the assembly.
- Typically, this person comes from the largest parliamentary group, but appointing a left-wing prime minister could risk a repeat of a confidence vote, supported not only by the center-right and far-right but potentially also by the president's camp.
Is a governing coalition possible?
- Unlike many European countries, France has no experience in forming broad coalitions since the Fourth Republic, but several figures from the left and center have previously indicated that this could be a solution for a hung parliament.
- Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, long-time Macron ally François Bayrou, and Green Party leader Marine Tondelier are among those who stated last week that an anti-National Front coalition, ranging from moderate left to center-right, could unite around a basic legislative program.
- Many of them stated on Sunday that something similar is now needed, as Rafael Glucksmann, who led the socialist list in the European elections, said: "We are in a divided assembly, and we must act like adults. Parliament must be the heart of power in France."
- Bayrou noted that nobody won, adding that "the days of absolute majorities are over," and that it is up to "everyone to sit at the table and accept their responsibilities."
- Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure stated that the vote should "open the way for real re-establishment."
- According to experts, forming a major coalition, while theoretically possible, would be difficult due to the parties' differing positions on issues like taxes, pensions, and investment in clean energy.
- Bertrand Mathieu, a constitutional law expert at Sorbonne University in Paris, said: "It's a nice idea on paper, but there is a significant gap between what is possible and what can actually be achieved."
Alliances, "Technocratic" Government?
- Instead of attempting to form a formal coalition government, outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal suggested last week that the main parties could form various alliances dedicated to voting through individual legislations.
- Macron has tried this strategy since losing his majority in 2022, but with limited success, having to frequently resort to unpopular constitutional powers like Article 49.3 to push legislation without parliamentary voting.
- The president might also consider appointing a technocratic government, similar to those seen in countries like Italy, consisting of experts such as economists, senior civil servants, academics, diplomats, business leaders, or labor unionists.
- Finally, Macron could ask Attal—who stated on Sunday that he would resign—to remain at the head of some form of caretaker government.
