A recent opinion poll in Israel indicated that the Likud party, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, would suffer defeat if early elections were held today. This comes at a time when negotiations for a long-awaited deal with Hamas for a ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for the release of hostages are exerting pressure on Netanyahu's government, which is threatened with collapse under U.S. pressures and street protests demanding a formula for the hostages' return.
**Widespread Anger at Netanyahu**
There is widespread anger among the political and public spheres towards Prime Minister Netanyahu for imposing new conditions on the prisoner exchange deal and ceasefire with Hamas. Politicians, generals, commentators, and families of Israeli hostages assert that the aim of these conditions is one: to sabotage the deal, as Netanyahu has done several times since November. They emphasize that the reason for his actions is that the deal would lead to a major political battle to topple his government.
**Decline of Likud**
The survey conducted by Israeli Channel 13 reveals that a right-wing party led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, former Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, and former Interior Minister Gideon Sa'ar would win the elections if held today, securing 32 seats in the Knesset. According to the poll, the National Unity Party, led by Benny Gantz, would gain 25 seats, while Likud, led by Netanyahu, would secure 21 seats. Meanwhile, the Yesh Atid party, led by Yair Lapid, would receive 13 seats. Additionally, the alliance between the Labor and Meretz parties, led by Yair Golan, would obtain 9 seats. The survey also indicates that Sa'ar's party would not pass the electoral threshold if it runs alone. Furthermore, it was revealed that the bloc opposing Netanyahu would gain 63 seats, not including votes for the “Joint List”. Netanyahu's bloc would thus be allocated 53 seats. The alliance between the National Unity Party and Yesh Atid would not add seats for either party, as they would together acquire 21 seats.
**58% Support for the Deal**
The poll also attempted to measure public support for the proposed hostage deal with Hamas. According to the results, 58% of the public supported the proposed deal, while 23% opposed it, and 19% responded that they did not know.
**Support for Netanyahu**
Yair Lapid, the leader of the largest opposition party in Israel, stated on Monday that he would support Netanyahu in the Knesset to remain in office if members of his ruling coalition resigned due to the ceasefire agreement. Netanyahu has given his officials approval to resume negotiations for a potential agreement with Hamas to end the fighting in Gaza and release Israeli hostages.
**Government Collapse**
Some members belonging to the far-right faction in Netanyahu's coalition have stated that they would withdraw if the war in Gaza ends before Hamas is defeated and the hostages are freed, a scenario that could lead to the collapse of the Israeli Prime Minister's government. Yair Lapid, leader of the Yesh Atid party, expressed during a meeting of his party's parliamentary bloc that there is an agreement regarding the hostages. He stressed that it is not true that Netanyahu has to choose between making such an agreement or remaining Prime Minister. He added: "Let him finalize the agreement... I promised him that I would support him, and I will keep that promise," indicating the potential withdrawal of Netanyahu's coalition partners.
**Hagari Contradicts Netanyahu**
Israeli Army spokesperson Daniel Hagari stated on Monday that Israel plans to fight Hamas in Gaza for five years. He said to ABC News, "Will you and I be discussing Hamas in Gaza in five years? The answer is yes." Hagari's statement starkly contrasts with Prime Minister Netanyahu's promises for the swift destruction of Hamas.
**Likud's Potential Fall**
Earlier, a poll in Israel predicted that the establishment of a new right-wing party could overcome the ruling Likud party led by Netanyahu. The Israeli newspaper Maariv reported on Friday that the formation of a new right-wing party, which would include former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, and former Justice Minister Gideon Sa'ar, could become the largest party in Israel.
**Bennett and Gantz Surpass Netanyahu**
The results of the poll also showed that Bennett and Gantz have more popular support than Netanyahu for the position of Prime Minister. It clarified that 43% of Israelis believe Gantz is the most suitable for the position, compared to 36% who support Netanyahu, while 21% said they have no specific answer. The current government was formed following general elections at the end of 2022 and is supposed to last four years unless early elections are held. There do not appear to be early elections on the horizon in Israel due to Netanyahu's refusal to hold elections while the war in Gaza continues.
