The movement led by the opposition forces in the Lebanese parliament to promote the roadmap they prepared to resolve the presidential deadlock through the election of a president will not achieve its intended goals of reshuffling the political landscape. Instead, it will be added to previous initiatives that received the endorsement of the ambassadors of the quintet committee, hoping to contribute to facilitating the election. This was conveyed to the committee during their meeting with the opposition delegation. The reason seems to lie in the fact that local and external conditions are not yet ripe to put the presidential election on the front burner. The situation remains tied to international and Arab efforts to reach a ceasefire on the Gaza front and its implications for southern Lebanon, although parliamentary blocs are united in supporting dialogue, each in its own way.
The Quintet Awaits a Breakthrough
The forced hiatus given to itself by the committee of quintet ambassadors serves as conclusive evidence, at least in the short term, that there is difficulty in removing the presidential election from the refrigerator of waiting. They are currently looking for the possibility of creating a breakthrough to restart their engines, perhaps with the arrival of next month, which is seen by Western diplomatic sources as a pivotal point to amplify communications to liberate the presidential election from the block preventing it. They treat this as an opportunity for the deputies—a potential last chance—to prepare the conditions for achieving the presidential election, otherwise, the vacancy in the presidency may extend beyond the US presidential elections in November.
The opposition delegation assigned to meet with parliamentary blocs and independent deputies is keen to hear their views on the roadmap they prepared to eliminate obstacles delaying the presidential election, taking notes on their comments without responding to them, perhaps until after completing its meetings, which are supposed to include the Development and Liberation bloc headed by Speaker Nabih Berri, should Berri express a desire to engage with the delegation, despite the escalated political exchanges between him and the head of the Lebanese Forces Party, Samir Geagea. A prominent parliamentary source confirmed to "Asharq Al-Awsat" that the rising disagreement between them over who calls for consultations or dialogue will not obstruct direct communication, even if the meeting is limited to exchanging views from a position of disagreement.
No Names for Candidates
It has become clear that the opposition delegation avoids discussing names of candidates for the presidency, as noted by the parliamentary blocs that have met with them so far. It is rumored that the reason lies in the opposition still intersecting with the Free Patriotic Movement in supporting the candidacy of former minister Jihad Azour, while the resistance axis continues to support the candidacy of former MP Sleiman Frangieh of the Marada Movement. This complicates the path to agreeing on a settlement based on understanding a candidate who stands at an equal distance from everyone.
However, the preliminary outcomes of the opposition meetings, while aiming to absolve themselves of obstruction and link it to the resistance axis, reveal an expansion of their divergences with the Democratic Gathering, which has not detected any new developments in their initiative, as said by delegation member MP Wael Abou Faour, calling for more flexibility among the parties to reach a solution.
Advice from the Democratic Gathering
"Asharq Al-Awsat" learned that the Democratic Gathering delegation emphasized the need to stop passing the blame and exchanging accusations that lead to deepening the divide between the parties. They advised communication with Berri to produce a settlement leading to the election of a president. This was also advised by the Free Patriotic Movement, the Moderate bloc, and the New Lebanon bloc, even while dealing positively with the initiative.
The Democratic Gathering's call for the opposition to communicate with Berri stems from the belief that the presidential settlement remains impossible without him. This is particularly true in light of the opposition's disconnection from communication with Hezbollah, which has delegated its ally to make decisions regarding the presidential file, a sentiment shared by the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement. Without either, achieving the political quorum for electing a president is unfeasible.
The Democratic Gathering believes there is no need for a confrontation with Berri, and bypassing his role would obstruct the presidential election. They stress that the ultimate goal is to reach a presidential settlement, and it is unjustifiable to invoke new precedents, especially since at that time, Army Commander Michel Sleiman was elected president with parliamentary consensus, without altering the constitutional text that requires him to resign a certain period before running. This was mentioned by gathering member Hadi Abou Al-Hassan during his remarks before the opposition delegation, adding that the necessity that compelled his election then calls for rising above disputes for the sake of achieving the presidential election.
Overcoming the Formalities of Dialogue
Thus, Berri was the "absent present" in the opposition meetings, which the deputies of the Strong Lebanon Bloc were careful to refrain from commenting on. They left the situation to the political council of the Free Patriotic Movement, which has shown a willingness to engage with the opposition's proposals, while also urging the need to overcome formalities and not consider any consultative format as a new constitutional norm if its outcome guarantees the election.
The head of the Free Patriotic Movement, MP Gibran Bassil, balances his responsiveness to the opposition's proposals with his desire to activate his relationship with Berri, which is currently in a honeymoon phase, unlike the previous period marked by unprecedented political clashes.
Therefore, while the deputies affiliated with the centrist axis, along with the deputies of the Democratic Gathering and the Free Patriotic Movement, seem positive in their dealings with the opposition's initiative, they insist that it not come at the expense of their relationship with Berri. Meanwhile, some deputies from the change forces outside the opposition, led by Melhem Khalaf, Ibrahim Mneimneh, Paula Yacoubian, and Firas Hamdan, lean towards adopting the initiative.
How will the opposition act at the conclusion of its parliamentary meetings? Will it be able to reshuffle the cards, given that those who intersected with them in supporting Azour are not inclined to engage, as they prefer to avoid an unnecessary confrontation with Berri and are keen to communicate with him? According to "Asharq Al-Awsat."
