July 14, 1958; it has been 66 years since an incident that continues to be a topic of discussion and controversy among Iraqis to this day. Some believe in the shift to a republican regime, while others argue that a monarchical rule is more suitable for a complex country like Iraq. I will not engage in evaluating this event, as it has deep roots and reasons; however, no rational person can trivialize or accept the "massacre" that occurred with the royal family, nor can any change based on bloodshed be supported. This event has laid the groundwork for subsequent events, the repercussions of which we still live with today.
There is a lovely cognitive theory titled the "Butterfly Effect." In short, it describes a situation where small differences in the initial condition of a dynamic system can lead to significant differences in the future behavior of that system. Here lies the question: what about the large differences? What will they bring about?
What transpired on July 14 cannot be approached or comprehended from a single perspective; on the contrary, we must dissect and analyze it, viewing it from multiple angles. This event - in its causes, goals, form, and method - established the various stages that the Iraqi republic and its political system went through, leading to subsequent coups and to Saddam Hussein's ascension to power, whose behavior led to Iraq's complete disconnection from the world and its isolation. This had direct effects on both the structure of the state and the mindset of the citizen, culminating in the erosion of the concept of the state and the reinforcement of the idea of power and fear of the party, all the way to the resounding fall on April 9, 2003, and its local and regional repercussions that persist to this day.
The historical movement, the interaction of events and their influences on one another, and their reflections and implications necessitate a deeper understanding of everything happening around us, both internally and externally. Understanding past events/eras and what they established or built means comprehending our lived reality and anticipating the forthcoming future. It is not an exaggeration to say that the Republic of Iraq, as a state, its institutions, and ruling culture, is living in a state of direct (both positive and negative) impact from what happened on July 14.
My approach - and what I would like to convey - is that there is a pattern of governance and state management that was established during that era and continues to this day. It has become a prevalent norm, even a culture that is difficult to confront, extending beyond the ruler to the behavior of the ruled. This has been evolving and deepening due to the circumstances and climates we are going through or the ones affecting us. Unfortunately, this has led many to avoid any frankness needed to establish comprehensive reconciliation, resulting in viewpoints and orientations based on achieving immediate populist interests, lacking a comprehensive long-term vision that is integrative with previous ones, distancing the idea of the individual, and elevating it in the name of the state and the homeland.
It must be stated that evaluating previous and subsequent approaches, along with their measures and decisions, cannot be "black or white." Fairness calls for disassembling, analyzing, and understanding the circumstances, backgrounds, and implications, while selectively choosing what is best and most appropriate to build upon, move forward with, and rectify the adverse effects of certain decisions before it's too late. Here, we also recall Nuri Pasha al-Said, who fell victim to a lack of reason in favor of emotional responses and was victimized by distortion and demonization for the sake of populism and speeches designed to create an atmosphere of anger towards the status quo and a call to build a different reality.
Unfortunately, the reality has not changed much; some of Said's visions and projects have been completed while other conflicting visions have been formulated and implemented, contributing to worsening conditions. At the moment of "truth," many felt regret, including the elites. And away from populist discourses, they look back with sorrow at the loss of a true statesman during the era of establishing the modern state. The unfortunate loss of this man transcends the idea of "physical disappearance," as it signifies a break in the concept of the state, reason, and calmness in favor of chaos, ignorance, and emotional reactions.
What we need today in Iraq, at this moment and on this occasion, is to understand our history well: what founded our state? How has this path been completed? On various levels. Why have we reached difficult and pivotal moments that almost risked everything? How has this been treated? Were the treatments or surgical operations compatible with the precision of the diagnosis? These questions are often posed in closed rooms; however, the answers are usually contingent on immediate circumstances rather than a strategic outlook, prioritizing personal interests over public ones.
The challenges that Iraq is experiencing today are not separated from the challenges of the region and the world. The deeply rooted internal crises interact with crises that have become characteristic of a world incapable of producing solutions, primarily economic crises. The true impact lies in understanding all of this, accurate diagnosis, following treatments, and conducting operations, even if harsh, to achieve what is appropriate for the state and the people in the long term. This challenge is part of a political process that has lost, day after day for decades, the values of service in favor of achieving profits, ethics in favor of demonization, and the homeland in favor of leadership.
There is a systematic establishment of other values that will become characteristic of political work in Iraq, coinciding with similar values in governance. Hope remains, and as the great Muhammad Mahdi al-Jawahiri said:
"A generation will rise from the depths of despair,
Of determined strength, fierce and bold,
Exchanging what is with what is hoped for,
And sacrificing what is desired for that which it wants."